Planning Year in Review 2023: Zoning Reform, a Rail Revolution, and Climate Realities

In early 2023, the world was still making its way out of the Covid-19 pandemic, autonomous vehicles seemed poised to rule city streets, and pandemic-era commuting patterns continued to wreak havoc on public transit ridership and downtown office occupancy.

One year later, some things changed while others remained much the same. The Tesla empire—and the autonomous car industry—seem more precarious than ever, with companies facing federal investigations into safety concerns and massive recalls. The shift toward electrification in the transportation sector continues, if slower than planned. States are anticipating a significant drop in gas tax revenue in the coming years, prompting transportation officials to look for other sources of funding. Many cities are failing to uphold their Vision Zero pledges or meet their street safety benchmarks as pedestrian deaths reached record highs.

However, record levels of federal investment into transportation and infrastructure could breathe new life into the floundering U.S. passenger rail system, with the nation’s first high-speed rail (HSR) line successfully running in Florida and more projects in the works.

The housing crisis has hardly abated. Despite some growth in housing production, the end of pandemic assistance and eviction protection programs has led to a rise in homelessness and housing insecurity. Small towns and rural communities that once felt shielded from urban-scale problems are seeing massive population influxes along with spiking housing costs and strain on local infrastructure.

Around the country, zoning reform advocates are seizing the moment to reverse policies that encourage sprawl and drive up housing prices. Cities are diversifying their housing toolkits with ADUs, modular housing (particularly popular as short-term and emergency shelters), and the conversion of office buildings and other underused properties into housing. Walkability went mainstream, with ‘car-free’ or car-light master-planned developments and street redesign projects gaining steam in some of the country’s most car-centric cities. The 15-minute city concept paid for its popularity by becoming the victim of conspiracy theorists who view walkable neighborhoods as a threat to their freedoms. Meanwhile, research continues to prove the benefits of compact, transit-oriented, mixed-use communities for public health, economic development, and sustainability.

Zoning reform sweeps the nation, the affordability crisis persists 

As the housing crisis rages on, with rents soaring and housing construction hamstrung by high costs and supply chain issues, cities are starting to reverse decades of zoning decisions that privileged single-family neighborhoods and excluded multifamily housing and mixed-use development, encouraging sprawl and a limited housing supply. In 2023, zoning reform advocates continued to win victories that policymakers hope will improve affordability, but backlash from homeowner groups and other interests have slowed or, in some cases, reversed some reforms.

The push to increase housing density and support multifamily housing in more areas led to widespread legislation to eliminate single-family zoning, a practice often deemed exclusionary and rooted in racist early 20th-century restrictions. Housing advocates argue that the proliferation of single-family neighborhoods has created a shortage of affordable rental housing and smaller units, inducing sprawl and pushing people farther out of central cities and away from economic opportunities.

As part of these efforts, accessory dwelling units (ADUs) grew in popularity as more cities and states legalized secondary units as a low-impact way to gently increase housing density and offer homeowners a potential revenue stream. ADUs can take many forms, from separate backyard cottages to basement apartments and converted garages. Modular construction, also known as manufactured housing, is also seeing a rebranding of sorts as builders and homebuyers realize the benefits of off-site modular construction, which can make housing production must faster and more affordable than traditional on-site construction. Modular home builders are calling on states to adapt building codes and zoning laws to reduce barriers to manufactured housing, which is often stigmatized and excluded from some neighborhoods. As the remote work trend persists, building owners are also looking to adaptive reuse as a way to convert now-underused office space and former malls to housing or other uses.

• The year kicked off in January with the announcement of an $85 million federal ‘YIMBY’ grant program aimed at helping cities overcome regulatory barriers and boost housing production, signaling a willingness on the part of the Biden administration to guide housing policy. In New York City, Mayor Eric Adams proposed legislation that would streamline office conversions to increase housing stock and reduce vacancy rates.
• In February, the ‘Montana Miracle’ (more on that later) started gaining momentum as an ambitious package of zoning reforms began making its way through that state’s legislature. In California, it became clear that many of the state’s municipalities would miss their deadlines for submitting housing plans to comply with the Regional Housing Needs Assessment, leading developers to start eyeing a little-used rule known as the Builder’s Remedy.
• In March, Arlington County, Virginia ended single-family zoning.
• April showers brought the preliminary passage of a ‘missing middle housing’ bill in the Washington State Senate, but backlash to zoning reform began building as Gainesville, Florida became the first city to rescind zoning changes.
• May brought more good news for zoning reform advocates as Austin eliminated parking requirements citywide, an ADU bill passed in the Texas Senate, and Montana’s governor signed a major package of zoning reforms into law.
• In June, the ADU wave continued as Cincinnati became the first Ohio city to legalize accessory units, and Boise approved its first zoning code update in over half a century.
• In July, a report showed that the demand for ADU permits on the West Coast was so strong it outweighed many departments’ ability to process them.
• Opposition to zoning reform surfaced again in August, when a group sued the city of Austin, challenging four ordinances that address affordable housing and mixed use.
• Phoenix, Arizona legalized accessory dwelling units in September.
• More zoning reform in major cities happened in October, when Seattle passed zoning reforms for its downtown core and St. Paul approved zoning changes that promote transit-oriented development (TOD) and multifamily housing.
• In November, San Diego developers found a loophole that allows them to build much larger projects than expected on single-family lots, displeasing some neighbors. In Minneapolis, the battle over the Minneapolis 2040 Comprehensive Plan ended in defeat for the city, forcing them to revert to the 2030 plan after a series of legal challenges.
• In December, Austin eliminated single-family zoning, allowing up to three units on a lot, legalized tiny homes, and rescinded laws barring unrelated housemates. Days later, the lawsuit filed in August resulted in a District Court judge nixing three of the city’s 2022 zoning reforms.

Zoning reform remains a contentious topic in most places, and several new zoning laws were blocked or reversed by court decisions, keeping the topic at the forefront of planning issues for the foreseeable future. 

U.S. roads remain deadly for pedestrians and cyclists

It’s no secret that the U.S. transportation system is designed for and around cars. Despite years of Vision Zero initiatives, the country once again faced a pedestrian and cyclist safety crisis in 2023.

Nationwide, pedestrian deaths were the highest they’ve been in 41 years, up 77 percent since 2010, as reported last June by the Governors Highway Safety Association–despite a 36 percent drop in walking rates in recent years. Cyclist deaths reached a 46-year high, according to a report released last April by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

Concerns about the role the size of vehicles plays in pedestrian and cyclist deaths, as well as the speeds at which these larger vehicles are traveling. There was also dialogue about road policies that favor drivers over other road users, from right-on-red traffic rules to seemingly inconsequential phrasing in crosswalk laws that allow drivers that fatally strike people on bikes or other devices to walk (or in this case, drive) away with no criminal charges.

Government entities, NGOs, and pedestrian and cycling safety advocates alike took notice, releasing studies and reports, passing new laws, and revising guidelines throughout 2023.

• In January, in response to the deaths of 10 cyclists and 99 pedestrians in the state in 2022, Massachusetts passed a law requiring drivers to remain four feet away from pedestrians, cyclists, and other “vulnerable users.”
• In March, the Governors Highway Safety Association reported pedestrian deaths in the U.S. rose 5 percent in the first half of 2022, following a 40-year high in 2021.
• In April, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reported that U.S. traffic deaths had reached the highest level since 2005, with almost 43,000 people dying in vehicle crashes in both 2021 and 2022.
• In May, federal data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) revealed significant disparities in pedestrian fatalities between racial and ethnic groups. Also in May, the Federal Highway Administration released updated guidance for bicycle, pedestrian, and micromobility projects to align with new policies in the 2021 infrastructure law and improve safety for bicyclists and pedestrians. Additionally, the NHTSA proposed new guidance that included pedestrian safety assessments in vehicles' crash test requirements. To date, the agency has only conducted tests to assess the safety of people inside vehicles.
• In October, a report from Transportation Alternatives revealed that 2023 was on track to be the deadliest year for New York City bike riders since 1999, when 40 people on bikes died in crashes. Also in October, a new study of traffic deaths in Tennessee found a strong correlation between more pedestrian deaths and more crashes on straight, multi-lane roads (a.k.a. “stroads”) with speed limits over 35 miles per hour. Also in October, the NHTSA opened an investigation into Cruise self-driving cars after four separate incidents that injured pedestrians in San Francisco. Lastly in October, the New York Times published an op-ed that cited studies correlating higher street speeds to increased chance of pedestrian fatality in the event of a collision. 
• In December, a New York Times article revealed nearly three-quarters of pedestrian deaths happen at night, which is the exact opposite of patterns in countries like Canada and Australia. Also in December, the Federal Highway Administration updated its Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices for Streets and Highways (known as the MUTCD) to include improvements for vulnerable road users, including pedestrians and bicyclists. San Francisco failed its ten-year goal to achieve its Vision Zero Pledge of zero traffic deaths by 2024. At the time of reporting, the city saw 25 people killed in traffic crashes in 2023—just six fewer than the number of deaths in 2014.

A new hope for U.S. passenger rail 

After years of neglect, the U.S. passenger rail system could finally live up to its true potential after an infusion of federal funding kickstarted projects around the country. From California to Texas to Florida to the Northeast Corridor, regional and intercity passenger rail is having a moment that could carry it into a bright future. Cities are also slowly growing their light rail networks, but the setbacks caused by the pandemic and budget shortfalls are hindering many of these efforts. One bright spot is the Los Angeles Regional Connector, a key link between the city’s transit lines that could have massive impacts on Angelenos’ mobility.

The nation’s first private high-speed rail line now connects Orlando and Miami, with plans to build a Las Vegas-to-Southern California line moving along at a fast clip. Funding for Amtrak is helping the agency work with freight companies to reclaim priority on shared tracks, deploy new trains, and fuel expansion plans in dozens of regions.

• In January, New York City celebrated the the launch of Long Island Rail Road service to Manhattan’s Grand Central Terminal.
• In February, Los Angeles announced plans to study a potential extension of its regional rail into the South Bay. The region has been speeding up transit projects in anticipation of the 2028 Olympics.
• Rail superfans got some welcome news in March when Amtrak announced the hiring of former NYC Transit President Andy Byford to lead its expansion efforts.
• An April report from the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) outlined a wishlist from state and local transportation officials that included expanded service to remote areas, better service frequency, and improved station facilities. Maryland made progress on plans to improve rail service between Delaware and Virginia. In the private sector, a startup operator proposed a night train service between San Francisco and Los Angeles that would use existing tracks.
• In May, the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) awarded over $700 million via the Rail Vehicle Replacement Program to replace aging rail cars.
• In June, the long-awaited Los Angeles Regional Connector opened, finally letting L.A. transit riders make connections at one central hub. In D.C., Amtrak told a congressional committee that the agency had received almost 100 requests for new intercity rail lines, making a case for more federal support of the agency.
• In July, Amtrak revealed a $75 billion expansion plan that would dramatically increase service around the country, Florida’s Brightline high-speed rail line finished construction on its expansion to Orlando. On the other side of the country, Brightline’s southwestern project, Brightline West, completed its environmental review process.
• In August, California transportation officials came together to try to address the dangerous conditions created by coastal erosion along Southern California’s rail corridor, but failed to come up with a comprehensive plan to mitigate the impact of sea level rise on coastal infrastructure.
• September saw the opening of the expanded Brightline HSR from Miami to Orlando, and Colorado leaders took steps to secure funding for the proposed Front Range rail line. While most U.S. train projects don’t fit the traditional definition of high-speed rail, several ‘higher-speed rail’ lines are taking shape, including the Cascadia High-Speed Rail line, which would link the Pacific Northwest to British Columbia.
• By October, the Miami-to-Orlando line became so popular that Brightline doubled the number of daily trips.
• In November, Amtrak’s popular Northeast Corridor received over $16 billion in federal funding for infrastructure upgrades.
• In December, Brightline West took another step forward, securing $3 billion in federal infrastructure funding, bringing the total federal dollars awarded to rail projects in 2023 to over $8 billion.

Passenger rail doesn’t come with instant gratification. Projects take years, sometimes decades, and require massive infusions of resources and regional coordination between agencies and governments. But the completion of several important projects and the momentum gained by rail in 2023 certainly give train fans something to feel optimistic about. 

States and cities act on gas tax alternatives

As gas tax revenue continues to shrink with increased fuel efficiency and the growing popularity of electric vehicles, the question of how to fund roads without it was a top priority for many states and cities in 2023. Solutions explored largely fell into two buckets: fee-based revenue and road charges in the form of tolls.

Road pricing strategies involve directly charging drivers flat tolls, distance or time-based tolls, or congestion pricing, a fee levied on drivers on busy roads or during peak hours. In addition to generating revenue, congestion pricing is also intended to shift discretionary travel during peak times to different routes or modes of transportation. Thus, California and New York City consider it part of their emissions reduction strategies to meet climate goals.

However, social justice groups are calling attention to potential inequities in road pricing strategies. Proponents and critics alike want to ensure marginalized groups aren’t disproportionately impacted. Low-income drivers are the most likely to drive outside of peak commute hours.

• In February, Oregon Live reported equity concerns with plans for tolled highways around Portland.
• In May, the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority announced it would be exploring a congestion pricing scheme for some of the city’s freeways and roads.
• In July, the California Transportation Commission finalized a plan for a second road charge pilot program where participants will pay for the miles they drive. Also in July, the Orange County Transportation Authority considered its tolling policy for its Interstate 405 express lanes, which is slated to go into effect in 2024.
• In November, the Bay Area considered radical congestion pricing strategies including all-lane tolling on most highways, plus adjacent arterials.
• In December, NYC MTA approved its long-awaited–and controversial–congestion pricing plan, which received pushback over the summer in the form of lawsuits from New Jersey and the New York City borough of Staten Island. Also in December, Tennessee state transportation officials proposed optional toll lanes on some highways around the cities of Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville to help manage congestion and bring in funding for transportation improvements.

As opposed to tolling, which requires physical road infrastructure to implement, state and local governments are also looking at strategies that can be levied in a more administrative fashion in the form of a fee or a tax.

• In February, the California legislature considered weight-based registration fees for larger vehicles.

• In May, Oklahoma launched a six-month “pay-per-mile” pilot program.
• In July, Iowa’s electric fuel excise tax went into effect. Non-residential EV charging in the state is now subject to a 2.6 cents per kilowatt/hour fee. Also in July, Washington Governor Jay Inslee vetoed a bill that would have required the state to ask drivers to volunteer their odometer readings as part of a data gathering exercise in preparation for a potential future road-use tax. Hawaii DOT announced plans to implement a tax of either eight-tenths of a cent per mile driven or a $50 flat tax, to be implemented in 2025. Lastly in July, Utah announced a pilot program will use GPS-enabled devices to track driving habits and allow cities to create road pricing fee structures based on hyper-local and individual driving needs.

The threat of climate change is becoming reality

Every month from June to November in 2023 was the hottest ever recorded globally. Overall, it was the hottest summer since humans started measuring the temperature of the planet. Meanwhile, cities across the United States fell behind on climate goals and greenhouse gas emissions rose even though renewable energy production surpassed coal for the first time in 2022.

The changing climate has been on the planning world’s radar for decades now, but as its threats increasingly become realities, national and international conversations that used to toe partisan lines seem to be shifting. The year kicked off with 97 percent of U.S. mayors expressing concern about climate and ended with the highest number of major disasters, 23 total, since the federal government started keeping records in 1980.

Insurance companies have read the writing on the wall. Homeowner insurance premiums in locales at risk of climate-related disasters have skyrocketed, and some insurers are pulling out of states like California and Florida altogether. But it’s not just homes and people at risk. Infrastructure is vulnerable too.

• In March, The New York Times recently conducted an exploration of the most desirable locations for climate refugees to escape wildfires, drought, and sea-level rise, and Nature released a study that revealed housing markets are failing to factor climate risk in their assessments of housing values, leading to overvaluing of up to $237 billion.
• In May, State Farm announced it would no longer insure homes in California, joining the ranks of several other major insurance companies.
• In June, insurance broker Assurance named Galveston, Texas, the riskiest place to buy a beach house and ranked others.
• In August, a paper published in Nature Climate Change examined the financial, physical, and cultural outcomes of managed retreat through 14 examples from around the world. Also in September, a multi-year study into how climate change is impacting rural electric grids was announced.
• In December, an article by Adam Mahoney draws attention to a growing conundrum: as more Black Americans move to the South in search of affordability and good weather, they are increasingly at risk from climate disasters like hurricanes and wildfires.

It’s not all doom and gloom. This year the Biden Administration pushed forward multiple climate resilience and mitigation policies, including releasing a national climate resilience framework to address climate resilience at the national level but focusing on locally tailored solutions. The Federal Emergency Management Agency also created a “disaster resilience zone” designation for smaller towns and communities at high risk for natural disasters to ensure they get priority when it comes to federal funding for resilience and mitigation projects.

Finally, at the global scale, world leaders at COP28 agreed to end the use of fossil fuels in a bid to achieve global carbon neutrality by 2050, though it remains unclear how and if that declaration will come to fruition.

Walkability becomes political 

While the enthusiasm for open streets and walkable public spaces may not have remained at pandemic-era highs in every city, many places saw a continued shift toward making streets safer and more accessible and creating neighborhoods where car travel is optional. While some cities rolled back open streets programs, others formalized temporary car-free spaces. The concept of the 15-minute city continued to grow in popularity, but also fell victim to a head-scratching conspiracy theory that falsely interprets the concept of the 15-minute city as a threat to the freedom of movement. In the modern world, does having a conspiracy theory about you mean you’ve hit the mainstream?

Also pushing back on the traditional walkability narrative from a different, less perplexing angle are some disability advocates who caution that, without a strong focus on accessibility, ‘walkable’ spaces could become exclusive, catering primarily to able-bodied, younger people and failing to effectively serve the elderly, people with mobility issues, and others. 

• The year began with data showing the resilience of walkable neighborhoods and the success of open streets programs. However, in January we also saw the 15-minute city, a concept that promotes mixed-use neighborhood nodes that let people access most daily needs within a quick walk or bike ride, fall prey to conspiracy theorists who posited that the movement is, in fact, another tool used by the ‘Deep State’ to control and manipulate the population, somehow. 
• In February, New York City hired a ‘public space czar’ to manage the city’s sidewalks and street space, while Cleveland drew attention for claiming the top spot in a study on equitable walkability.
• In March, some observers noted a rise in ‘car-free’ or car-light developments being planned in car-centric cities like Houston, Texas and Tempe, Arizona. Meanwhile, walkability advocates shot back at the 15-minute conspiracy theories with a satirical retort from McSweeney’s and a response to the claim that 15-minute cities violate civil liberties.
• During April, East Lansing, Michigan developed a new master plan that will reorient the city’s parking capacity toward multistory structures and away from surface parking lots that take up valuable real estate and damage the city’s walkability. Researchers who study walkability and urban spaces warned that popular tools like the EPA’s Walkability Score can offer an incomplete portrait of how pedestrian-friendly a place actually is.
• In May, on the heels of hiring a ‘public space czar,’ New York City announced a $30 million investment in open streets projects.
• In June, Los Angeles announced a ‘park block’ program modeled on Barcelona’s superblocks and an Arizona development that bans personal vehicles neared completion in Tempe.
• July saw a surprising group of traditionally auto-centric cities shift toward supporting more walkability, connectivity, and public transit in their central cores, among them Missoula, Montana, Sugar Land, Texas, and Reno, Nevada. 
• In August, new research revealed the link between walkable neighborhoods and healthy pregnancies, adding to the growing body of research on how streets and urban design impact public health. The city of Minneapolis cut ties with the nonprofit operating its open streets program, putting the program in jeopardy.
• In September, Denver made its open streets program permanent, while one article highlighted U.S. college campuses as a beacon of walkable, mixed-use urbanism that could inspire other neighborhoods. And while cities are working to make public space safer for people biking and walking, new research also reveals the negative impact of long Covid on the health of active commuters, some of whom find themselves with reduced mobility or strength in the wake of the virus.
• In October, a survey of vendors in Seattle’s world-famous Pike Place Market revealed that the majority support pedestrianizing part of the street next to the market to make the space safer and more comfortable for the thousands of tourists who flock there. And travel guru Rick Steves shared lessons on walkability learned from his decades traversing Europe.
• In November, Houston received a $185 million grant for a new bike and walk trail, supporting that city’s efforts to make its sprawling central core more walkable and provide easier access to downtown and uptown parks, and Austin relaunched its open streets program after a hiatus. More research highlighted how urban design impacts children and people with disabilities, and how concepts like walkability can forget to include people with limited mobility.
• A December article continued to highlight the way that car-centric design and auto dependency disproportionately impact people with disabilities, and why accessibility must be at the forefront of safe streets efforts. Ending the year on a hopeful note, a YouTube video from CityBeautiful highlights a Philadelphia street that evokes quaint European alleys.

While 2023 can only be described as a mixed bag, massive challenges remain. The coming year could elucidate the real-world impacts of recent zoning reforms, with the results potentially guiding future legislation. Transportation planners must continue to prepare for new technology and proactively develop regulatory systems to keep people safe. Transit agencies are just beginning to contend with the ‘fiscal cliff’ they have been anticipating. It is increasingly clear that issues like housing, transportation, and sustainability are all deeply intertwined, and addressing them piecemeal obscures the larger challenges—and the opportunities to build vibrant, diverse, multimodal, and sustainable communities.