State Estimates Show Third Year of Population Loss for California

“California’s population declined 0.54% to [39,028,571] people, a loss of over 210,000 people,” reported Roland Li and Yuri Avila for the San Francisco Chronicle on January 26.

A sharp decrease in migration to California and roughly 100,000 total coronavirus pandemic deaths led to statewide population drops for the first time in a century, starting in 2020.

San Francisco, and the entire Bay Area, lost population during the second year of the pandemic, and California’s population continued to fall for the third year in a row, according to state estimates [PDF] released Thursday.

Comparison With Census Data

The population estimate is remarkably similar (difference is <1,000 people) to what the U.S. Census Bureau had reported in December, posted here, although the Census put the loss much lower, at 0.29 percent.

California had a population of 39,029,342 on July 1, 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 national and state population estimates and components of change released Dec. 22, 2022.

[Planetizen exclusive: U.S. Population Growing Again in 2022 After Flatlining in 2021, Dec. 27, 2022]

Bay Area Population Loss

“The nine-county Bay Area saw some of the steepest population declines in the state — ranging from Napa’s loss of about 1,800 people to Santa Clara’s loss of over 16,500 people, second only to Los Angeles County’s 113,000-person plunge in the state,” add Li and Avila.

What's notable according to the table titled, “Population change by Bay Area county, 2021-22,” is that San Francisco's population loss of 4,400 people or 0.5percent during that period, down significantly from the prior year, was the lowest, percentage-wise, for the 9-county region. Marin, the region's second least populous county, led with a loss of 1.5 percent, followed by Napa (least populous)  and San Mateo counties, with declines of 1.3 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.

Chief Reason for Population Loss Remains Unchanged

While the numbers may fluctuate a bit from year to year, the chief cause of the population loss is remarkably consistent, note Li and Avila.

San Francisco’s, and the Bay Area’s, losses were driven by a net domestic migration [sic], as many residents left the region and state for cheaper housing options.

Related in Planetizen:

• California Continues its Losing Streak, January 3, 2023
• Five Takeaways From California’s 2022 Demographic Changes, January 1, 2023
• Two Demographic Firsts, Both Losses, for California, May 10, 2021