Does Peak Car Mean the End of Induced Demand?

Aaron Renn provides a dissenting argument on the implications of peak car, namely, "if we’ve really reached peak car, maybe we really can build our way out of congestion after all."

1 minute read

December 6, 2014, 7:00 AM PST

By James Brasuell @CasualBrasuell


Aaron Renn builds his argument about a counterintuitive implication of peak car on data about the unprecedented decline of vehicle miles traveled since 2005, which has left U.S. Department of Transportation traffic projections (and many others) way off target. In doing so, Renn acknowledges that many freeway projects, driven by "speculative demand," should be questioned. 

Yet in a novel twist, Renn argues that induced demand has a flip side: "In a world of peak car, where traffic levels are flat to declining on a per capita basis, induced demand no longer holds court, certainly not to the level claimed by those who believe it’s pointless to build roads." Even in perpetually congested places like Los Angeles, suggests Renn, "peak car strengthens the argument for building or expanding roads."

Friday, December 5, 2014 in New Geography

Young Professional

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban and Environmental Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban and Environmental Planner

Get top-rated, practical training for planners

"Planetizen federal action tracker" logo superimposed over black and white image of US Capitol dome.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

October 28, 2026 - Zachary Whalen

A car drives through a puddle, making a large splash. Rain pours down.

California plans to bury El Niño’s downpour

If the state plays its cards right, it may be able to store a billion acre-feet of El Niño’s water in aquifers.

October 28, 2026 - Grist

A pencil rendering of Foundry Park, which shows skyscrapers and public green spaces.

Chicago breaks ground on $3 billion megadevelopment

The new neighborhood, titled Foundry Park, will one day host 3,700 residences.

October 23, 2026 - Chicago Sun Times

Lake Powell with much of the water evaporated.

Desperate measures: Advocates weigh draining Lake Powell to fill Colorado River

Draining the reservoir could reduce evaporation losses by a couple hundred thousand acre-feet.

4 seconds ago - Yale Environment 360

An Ariel view of Ocean Parkway, a busy six-lane highway

This road in NYC is infamously dangerous — and Mamdani can't fix it

New York City's Ocean Parkway is known for reckless driving, but the power to implement safety measures lies with the state rather than the city.

1 hour ago - Gothamist

People walking in Denver next to a red bus.

One of Denver’s busiest corridors to gain BRT

The project will span 18 miles and contain 74 bus rapid transit stations.

October 29 - Transportation Today News