The Future of U.S. High-Speed Rail Is in Texas

Carlos Aguilar, Texas Central president and CEO, comments on the changes to the San Francisco-to-Anaheim project announced last month by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and why his project linking Houston and Dallas/Fort Worth will progress.

3 minute read

March 5, 2019, 2:00 PM PST

By Irvin Dawid


"We fully understand the complexities of the California High-Speed Rail (HSR) project and the drivers that have led to the Governor of California’s decision to limit the scope of that state’s HSR," writes Carlos Aguilar,  a former senior vice president at the global engineering company CH2M Hill.

It is important to contrast both the physical facts that make our project different, as well as the government versus private approach to building such large-scale infrastructure.

Topographical challenges in California non-existent in Texas

"The main challenge ... is connecting the Central Valley to the main centers of population in the Bay Area and Los Angeles," continues Aguilar.

This is why the current range of expected cost in California is between $77 billion and $98 billion. Out of this figure, the tunnels required to link the valley to San Jose (Pacheco Pass) and Los Angeles (Tehachapi Mountains) collectively, could cost well over $20 billion with significant underground risk.

To put this in perspective, the potential cost of these tunnels alone, is more than the total projected cost of Texas Central’s 240-mile project to link Houston and North Texas.

According to Texas Central, "the train system will cost more than $12-billion to construct. This includes the tracks, viaducts, berms, maintenance facilities, power substations, and three passenger stations."

Texas bullet train will remove cars from Interstate 45

The trip from Dallas to Houston, with one intermediary stop in the Brazos Valley, will take only 90 minutes, much faster than an auto trip today, let alone the future.

"Nearly 50,000 Texans travel between the two metropolitan areas at least once a week, 90% of them by car," writes Keith Barrow for Railway Age.

The current journey time by road ranges from 3.5 to 5.5 hours, and traffic has increased nearly 10% annually since 2012. A Texas Department of Transportation study estimates journey times could reach 6.5 hours by 2035, even with the additional capacity provided by planned highway enhancements.

Why Texas?

To paraphrase James Carville, "it's the jobs, stupid."

"After reviewing over 90 pairs of cities to determine the most commercially successful place to deploy a high-speed train, Houston to Dallas was the answer," writes Aguilar.

The Houston to Dallas/Fort Worth region is by far, the most rapidly growing region in the nation. In 2018, Dallas and Houston combined added 224,700 jobs, compared to number two city, New York, at 115,500 jobs. No other region even comes close.

At the right distance, with the right economic links between Dallas, Houston and the Brazos Valley, and without the complexities now evident in California, our approach is more financially feasible.

Private, not public approach to financing

The California project was launched in 2008 with a nearly $10 billion bond measure, and has received federal funding of $3.5 billion that President Trump, in light of Newsom's Feb. 12 announcement, wants to recoup. Additional funding has come from the state's cap-and-trade program.

In contrast, the Texas high-speed rail train is funded by "investors and entrepreneurs," according to the FAQ.

Texas Central is an investor-funded company utilizing a market-led approach to financing, led by a group of primarily Texan investors. The Railroad will not seek grants from the US Government or the State of Texas, nor any operational subsidy once operation begins. The project will be financed with a blend of debt and equity.

"We are confident the Texas line will provide the ridership to sustain the operations, repay the debt and provide a return to the investors," concludes Aguilar.

Construction is scheduled to start late this year.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019 in Texas Central

View form second story inside Southdale Mall in Edina, Minnesota with escalators and model cars parked on downstairs floor.

The Mall Is Dead — Long Live the Mall

The American shopping mall may be closer to its original vision than ever.

March 21, 2024 - Governing

Houston, Texas skyline.

Report: Las Vegas, Houston Top List of Least Affordable Cities

The report assesses the availability of affordable rental units for low-income households.

March 22, 2024 - Urban Edge

View of Austin, Texas skyline with river in foreground during morning golden hour.

The Paradox of American Housing

How the tension between housing as an asset and as an essential good keeps the supply inadequate and costs high.

March 26, 2024 - The Atlantic

Aerial view of Anchorage, Alaska downtown with mountains in background at golden hour.

Anchorage Leaders Debate Zoning Reform Plan

Last year, the city produced the fewest new housing units in a decade.

1 hour ago - Anchorage Daily News

Young man in wheelchair crossing zebra crosswalk.

How to Protect Pedestrians With Disabilities

Public agencies don’t track traffic deaths and injuries involving disabled people, leaving a gap in data to guide safety interventions.

2 hours ago - Governing

Aerial view of mountain town of Steamboat Springs, Colorado in the winter with snow at dusk.

Colorado Town Fills Workforce Housing Need With ‘Dorm-Style’ Housing

Median rent in Steamboat Springs is $4,000 per month.

3 hours ago - CBS News

News from HUD User

HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research

Call for Speakers

Mpact Transit + Community

New Updates on PD&R Edge

HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research

Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools

This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.

Planning for Universal Design

Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.