Report: Cost Overruns and Deadline Constraints Plague California High-Speed Rail

At the heart of the financial and deadline challenges facing the $68 billion high-speed rail project are 36 miles of tunneling north of Los Angeles, according to Los Angeles Times analysis that includes interviews with experts on mega-projects.

2 minute read

October 28, 2015, 9:00 AM PDT

By Irvin Dawid


California Bullet Train

Lisapalomeque / Wikimedia Commons

"State officials say the tunnels will be finished by 2022 — along with 300 miles of track, dozens of bridges or viaducts, high-voltage electrical systems, a maintenance plant and as many as six stations," writes Ralph Vartabedian of the Los Angeles Times.

Vartabedian writes that his paper's analysis "indicates that the deadline and budget targets will almost certainly be missed — and that the state has underestimated the challenges ahead, particularly completing the tunneling on time." which he calls "the most ambitious tunneling project in the nation's history."

"It doesn't strike me as realistic," said James Monsees, one of the world's top tunneling experts and an author of the federal manual on highway tunneling. "[Earthquake] Faults are notorious for causing trouble."

The tunnel challenges are indeed formidable. The project "will require about 20 miles of tunnels under the San Gabriel Mountains between Burbank and Palmdale, involving either a single tunnel of 13.8 miles or a series of shorter tunnels."

The rail authority only asked permission last month to begin testing under the Angeles National Forest to build the tunnels, wrote Steve Scauzillo of the San Gabriel Valley Tribune on Sept. 25 in a detailed article about tunnel options.

In addition, "(a)s many as 16 additional miles of tunnels would stretch under the Tehachapi Mountains from Palmdale to Bakersfield," adds Vartabedian.

Three years ago Vartabedian wrote about the same engineering challenges - posted here

Other experts chimed in on the other challenges facing nation's largest public works project.

...Bent Flyvbjerg, a University of Oxford business professor and a leading expert on megaproject risk, said the lagging schedule, litigation, growing costs and permit delays arising so early in construction are warning signs that even more delays and higher costs are coming.

"You can never make up an early cost increase," said Robert Bea, a member of the National Academy of Engineering and a pioneer in civil engineering risk analysis. "It just gets worse. I have never seen it go the other way in 60 years."

Do tunnel projects go bad? Just ask the citizens of Seattle where the world's largest boring machine, Big Bertha, has yet to renew boring the Alaskan Way Viaduct replacement tunnel since it broke down in December 2013. However, it was "on the move" last February and is now being repaired.

Notwithstanding the projects formidable challenges, there are those who believe in the project, wrote Steve Benen for MSNBC in January. Even retiring House Speaker John Boehner said rather unexpectedly two years ago that he’d like to see the United States become “a nation of builders” again.

Saturday, October 24, 2015 in Los Angeles Times

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

July 16, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Green vintage Chicago streetcar from the 1940s parked at the Illinois Railroad Museum in 1988.

Chicago’s Ghost Rails

Just beneath the surface of the modern city lie the remnants of its expansive early 20th-century streetcar system.

July 13, 2025 - WTTV

Blue and silver Amtrak train with vibrant green and yellow foliage in background.

Amtrak Cutting Jobs, Funding to High-Speed Rail

The agency plans to cut 10 percent of its workforce and has confirmed it will not fund new high-speed rail projects.

July 14, 2025 - Smart Cities Dive

Worker in yellow safety vest and hard hat looks up at servers in data center.

Ohio Forces Data Centers to Prepay for Power

Utilities are calling on states to hold data center operators responsible for new energy demands to prevent leaving consumers on the hook for their bills.

July 18 - Inside Climate News

Former MARTA CEO Collie Greenwood standing in front of MARTA HQ with blurred MARTA sign visible in background.

MARTA CEO Steps Down Amid Citizenship Concerns

MARTA’s board announced Thursday that its chief, who is from Canada, is resigning due to questions about his immigration status.

July 18 - WABE

Rendering of proposed protected bikeway in Santa Clara, California.

Silicon Valley ‘Bike Superhighway’ Awarded $14M State Grant

A Caltrans grant brings the 10-mile Central Bikeway project connecting Santa Clara and East San Jose closer to fruition.

July 17 - San José Spotlight