Using the term 'oil supply crunch' as opposed to 'peak oil', this British report indicates that the oil crisis will hit by 2013, with prices jumping to $200/barrel. It states that the problem is not insufficient oil but obstacles to its extraction.
"While there is plenty of oil in the ground, companies and governments were failing to invest enough to ensure production," according to the Chatham House report.
"In reality, the only possibility of avoiding such a crunch appears to be if a major recession reduces demand - and even then such an outcome may only postpone the problem," author Professor Paul Stevens said in The Coming Oil Supply Crunch.
From report (pg. 9):
"The main hypothesis of this report is simple. Unless there is a collapse in oil demand sometime within the next five to ten years, the world will experience a serious oil ‘supply crunch'. This will be nothing to do with below ground resource constraints or arguments to do with ‘peak oil'. Rather, it will be the result of inadequate investment by international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs) which means that below-ground oil resources will not be converted into producing capacity."
Chatham House press release: The Coming Oil Supply Crunch
Chatham House Report: The Coming Oil Supply Crunch (38-page PDF)
Thanks to John Hartz
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