A milestone was reached last month in oil imports: For the first time in 18 years, the U.S. produced more oil than it imported thanks to fracking and reduced consumption. But according to a new IEA report, shale oil growth will peak within a decade.
Matthew L. Wald, the Times veteran energy reporter, writes that "according to a report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency (the Paris-based organization that provides energy analysis to 28 industrialized nations), production of such oil [from shale formations] in the United States and worldwide will provide only a temporary respite from reliance on the Middle East."
[B]y the mid-2020s, non-OPEC production starts to fall back and countries from the Middle East provide most of the increase in global supply,” the report said. A high market price for oil will help stimulate drilling for light tight [shale] oil, the report said, but the resource is finite, and the low-cost suppliers are in the Middle East.
Reporting on the record U.S. oil production, Wendy Koch of USA Today writes, "Domestic oil production is at a 24-year high while foreign oil imports are at a 17-year low. The result: production exceeded net imports for the first time since February 1995, although the nation still imports 35% of the petroleum it uses."
- U.S. crude oil production averaged 7.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in October. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 7.5 million bbl/d in 2013 and 8.5 million bbl/d in 2014. [EIA]
The milestone was reported by the Energy Information Administration, a division of the U.S. Department of Energy, in its "Short-Term energy Outlook" released Wednesday. Motorists will no doubt be pleased to read that gasoline prices are forecast to continue to remain lower than last year's average of $3.63 per gallon through 2014.
As for the IEA forecast of peaking domestic oil production, Wald warns that "(p)redicting energy trends is notoriously difficult. For example, hardly anybody predicted the revolution in oil and gas production created by fracking in shale."
To that end, the Wall Street Journal editorial board member, Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., offered this caveat in a Nov. 8 piece, "Germany Reinvents the Energy Crisis" [subscription] to those who are quick to jump on the 'finite supply' of fossil fuels perspective.
In fact, the world's store of fossil hydrocarbons is truly vast, including almost unimaginable quantities of methane hydrates. The challenge is the technological and economic one of getting access to a given resource at an affordable price....
The IEA report, which deals with all aspects of energy, not just oil, had a dire warning in terms of growing carbon dioxide emissions.
[E]nergy demand will grow faster than renewable energy, so carbon dioxide output will rise 20 percent by 2035, the report predicts. In contrast, climate scientists are calling for an 80 percent reduction in carbon dioxide by 2050.
FULL STORY: Shale’s Effect on Oil Supply Is Forecast to Be Brief

Trump Administration Could Effectively End Housing Voucher Program
Federal officials are eyeing major cuts to the Section 8 program that helps millions of low-income households pay rent.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker
A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

Canada vs. Kamala: Whose Liberal Housing Platform Comes Out on Top?
As Canada votes for a new Prime Minister, what can America learn from the leading liberal candidate of its neighbor to the north?

Washington State’s Parking Reform Law Could Unlock ‘Countless’ Acres for New Housing
A law that limits how much parking cities can require for residential amd commercial developments could lead to a construction boom.

Wildlife Rebounds After the Eaton Fire
Following the devastation of the Eaton Fire, the return of wildlife and the regrowth of native plants are offering powerful signs of resilience and renewal.

LA to Replace Inglewood Light Rail Project With Bus Shuttles
LA Metro says the change is in response to community engagement and that the new design will be ready before the 2028 Olympic Games.
Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools
This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.
Planning for Universal Design
Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.
Central Transportation Planning Staff/Boston Region MPO
Heyer Gruel & Associates PA
Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS)
City of Grandview
Harvard GSD Executive Education
Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada
Toledo-Lucas County Plan Commissions