Americans Driving Less- Temporary, or Permanent?

Nate Silver, the baseball stats guy turned election predictor, takes a look at the statistics showing that Americans are driving less.

1 minute read

May 6, 2009, 2:00 PM PDT

By Tim Halbur


"How much of it is just a result of the bad economy? The unemployment rate has soared significantly since last summer; perhaps the only good thing about losing your job is that you no longer have to endure the drive to work.

To sort this out, I built a regression model that accounts for both gas prices and the unemployment rate in a given month and attempts to predict from this data how much the typical American will drive. The model also accounts for the gradual increase in driving over time, as well as the seasonality of driving levels, which are much higher during the summer than during the winter. (The results of the model are shown for the month of January in each year since 1980 in the graph above.)

The model predicts that given a somewhat higher unemployment rate but much lower gas prices, the lower gas prices should have won out: Americans should have driven slightly more in January 2009 than they had a year earlier. But instead, as we've described, they drove somewhat less. In fact, they drove about 8 percent less than the model predicted."

Wednesday, May 6, 2009 in Esquire

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Use Code 25for25 at checkout for 25% off an annual plan!

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

May 7, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

People biking along beach path with moored ship in San Diego, California.

San Diego Adopts First Mobility Master Plan

The plan provides a comprehensive framework for making San Diego’s transportation network more multimodal, accessible, and sustainable.

May 2, 2025 - SD News

Front of Walmart store with sign.

Walmart Announces Nationwide EV Charging Network

The company plans to install electric car chargers at most of its stores by 2030.

May 7, 2025 - Inc.

Pump station with blue pipes coming out of concrete wall in Seattle, Washington.

Seattle Builds Subway-Sized Tunnel — for Stormwater

The $700 million ‘stormwater subway’ is designed to handle overflows during storms, which contain toxic runoff from roadways and vehicles.

5 minutes ago - City Observatory

Sign for Deschutes National Forest in Oregon.

Feds Clear Homeless Encampment in Oregon Forest

The action displaced over 100 people living on national forest land near Bend, Oregon.

1 hour ago - The New York Times

Seeing the Better City

Is This Urbanism?

Chuck Wolfe ponders a recommended subscription list of Substack urbanists and wonders — as have others — about the utility of the "urbanist" moniker.

2 hours ago - Resurgence: A Journey via Substack

Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools

This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.

Planning for Universal Design

Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.