Supply Side Analysis & Verification of Ridership Forecasts

"Ridership carried by U.S. fixed-guideway transit projects opened from the mid-1980s typically fell short of levels forecast during early planning. Such forecasts failed to consider service-supply factors, or “practical” capacity as built. Disparity between forecast and observed ridership provides no grounds for conclusion that the forecast was “incorrect.” If the requisite service level was not provided, then the forecast was not tested.

"...Transportation planners today have access to more data, greater analytical capability and lessons learned from the mid-1980s... One important example: transit consumers are evidently not willing to tolerate peak-hour crowding at levels once assumed by planners. Acknowledgment of this fact may jeopardize the “forecaster bias” theory promulgated by Flyvbjerg et al, and others, regarding new rail projects."

Thanks to Michael D. Setty