U.S. on Track to Reduce Emissions by 2030, Report Says

The latest edition of the Rhodium Group's "Taking Stock" report accounts for the uncertainties of Covid-19 recovery while charting the trends in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

2 minute read

July 20, 2021, 5:00 AM PDT

By James Brasuell @CasualBrasuell


Dockweiler State Beach

trekandshoot / Shutterstock

Rhodium Group recently published the latest edition on annual outlook for U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under current federal and state policies.

"This current policy baseline provides a starting point for assessing where additional work—in the form of federal, state, or corporate action—is necessary to achieve mid- and long-term US GHG emission reduction goals," according to an article that shares the new report.

In a bit of positive news that might surprise, the country is on track to reduce GHG emissions 20 percent to 22 percent below 2005 levels by the year 2025. "Looking ahead to 2030, the US is on track to achieve emission reductions anywhere from 20% to 26% below 2005 levels, absent additional action," adds the article.

The report accounts for uncertainties surrounding the country's ongoing, uneven recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Given that uncertainty, the final tally in 2030 could range anywhere from 17 percent to 30 percent reductions from 2005 levels, according to the report.

Rhodium Group's ClimateDeck data platform includes baseline scenarios—including GHG emissions and underlying sectoral data—for the nation and all 50 U.S. states. The source article below also includes trend data for economic sectors like energy production, transportation, industry, and buildings.

Here are the two brief summaries, with more detail included in the source article, of the predicted emission trends in two of the sectors with most direct relevance to the nations planners:

  • Transportation: "After a brief post-pandemic rebound, transportation emissions decline modestly through 2030, driven by fuel economy improvements in passenger vehicles and a shift toward electric vehicles (EVs)."
  • Buildings: "Building efficiency improves but emissions from residential and commercial buildings remain effectively flat. Low-cost natural gas, increasing building square footage, and economic and population growth put upward pressure on building emissions, even while state policies make homes and businesses more efficient."

Thursday, July 15, 2021 in Rhodium Group

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Aerial view of town of Wailuku in Maui, Hawaii with mountains in background against cloudy sunset sky.

Maui's Vacation Rental Debate Turns Ugly

Verbal attacks, misinformation campaigns and fistfights plague a high-stakes debate to convert thousands of vacation rentals into long-term housing.

July 1, 2025 - Honolulu Civil Beat

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

July 9, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Map of Haussmann's redesign of Paris in the 1850s through 1870s under Napoleon III.

In Urban Planning, AI Prompting Could be the New Design Thinking

Creativity has long been key to great urban design. What if we see AI as our new creative partner?

June 30, 2025 - Tom Sanchez

View of dense apartment buildings on Seattle waterfront with high-rise buildings in background.

King County Supportive Housing Program Offers Hope for Unhoused Residents

The county is taking a ‘Housing First’ approach that prioritizes getting people into housing, then offering wraparound supportive services.

July 11 - Real Change

Aerial view of suburban housing near Las Vegas, Nevada.

Researchers Use AI to Get Clearer Picture of US Housing

Analysts are using artificial intelligence to supercharge their research by allowing them to comb through data faster. Though these AI tools can be error prone, they save time and housing researchers are optimistic about the future.

July 11 - Shelterforce Magazine

Green bike share bikes parked in a row on a commercial street with outdoor dining and greenery.

Making Shared Micromobility More Inclusive

Cities and shared mobility system operators can do more to include people with disabilities in planning and operations, per a new report.

July 11 - Cities Today