By 2030, the world's consumption of oil will drop due to increasing electric vehicle sales, according to a report by Bank of America. Other researchers disagree on the timeframe. The report is useful for highlighting the term, "peak oil demand."
Forty percent of global light duty vehicle sales will be electric vehicles by 2030, causing "global oil demand to peak by 2030,” according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis emailed to Bloomberg News.
"Despite strong global oil consumption helping to push crude prices higher, the rise of electric vehicles [EVs] is seen as one of the biggest long-term threats to demand," reports Alex Longley on the B of A analysis on Jan. 22. This graph tracking projected EV sales and global oil demand forecast shows the latter peaking around 2030.
Most oil companies see demand peaking around 2040, while Royal Dutch Shell Plc has said it expects to see demand peak in the early 2030s.
Consultancy Wood Mackenzie said late last year that it expects oil demand growth to crawl, but not peak, by 2035, forcing major energy companies to shift from oil to natural gas and chemicals.
"About 60 percent of oil is used in transportation, which is also where the biggest technological changes are emerging," report Jess Shankleman and Hayley Warren for Bloomberg Businessweek on Dec. 21, 2017. They delve deeper into the different "peak oil demand" forecasts and also look back at the old, now discredited predictions of peak oil supply.
Wall Street Journal reporters Lynn Cook and Elena Cherney reported on "peak oil demand" on May 21, 2017.
There's a growing consensus that the end of ever-rising consumption is in sight. The big question that many oil companies are debating: When?
A related post last July on an analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance focused on the outlook for electric vehicles predicts that EVs will outsell passenger vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2040 due to a plunge in battery prices and improvement in battery technology. The posts indicates that oil companies do not see EVs as that big a threat. That reaction may be changing now.
Hat tip to Nan Hildreth.
FULL STORY: BofA Sees Oil Demand Peaking by 2030 as Electric Vehicles Boom
Climate Concerns Largely Absent in Auto Showrooms
A consumer survey found that less than a third of respondents considered carbon emissions or the environment when they last purchased a motor vehicle, yet three-quarters of Americans consider climate change a major problem or crisis.
Are Reports Predicting a Future of Electric Vehicles Exaggerated?
David Yager, an oil industry consultant, writes that recent reports predicting electric vehicles will eventually outsell those with internal combustion engines are vastly exaggerated, notwithstanding national bans on future sales of such cars.
The Era of the Electric Vehicle is Approaching
A new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that due to a plunge in battery prices and improvement in battery technology, electric vehicles will be cost-competitive with gasoline vehicles in eight years. By 2040, they will outsell them.
Trump Administration Could Effectively End Housing Voucher Program
Federal officials are eyeing major cuts to the Section 8 program that helps millions of low-income households pay rent.
Planetizen Federal Action Tracker
A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.
Canada vs. Kamala: Whose Liberal Housing Platform Comes Out on Top?
As Canada votes for a new Prime Minister, what can America learn from the leading liberal candidate of its neighbor to the north?
Washington State’s Parking Reform Law Could Unlock ‘Countless’ Acres for New Housing
A law that limits how much parking cities can require for residential amd commercial developments could lead to a construction boom.
Wildlife Rebounds After the Eaton Fire
Following the devastation of the Eaton Fire, the return of wildlife and the regrowth of native plants are offering powerful signs of resilience and renewal.
LA to Replace Inglewood Light Rail Project With Bus Shuttles
LA Metro says the change is in response to community engagement and that the new design will be ready before the 2028 Olympic Games.
Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools
This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.
Planning for Universal Design
Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.
Central Transportation Planning Staff/Boston Region MPO
Heyer Gruel & Associates PA
Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS)
City of Grandview
Harvard GSD Executive Education
Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada
Toledo-Lucas County Plan Commissions