Twin Cities Regional Forecast Foresees Steady Growth and Big Changes

Metropolitan Council research staff presented updated regional forecasts to the council at a recent meeting. "The Twin Cities Regional Forecast to 2040: Steady Growth and Big Changes Ahead" completes a regular update of population, households, and jobs in the region until 2040. Regular updates incorporate changes in national forecasts and current assumptions, as well as the most recent data.

The regional forecast shows the Twin Cities region will gain 888,000 residents between 2010 and 2040, a slightly higher population than the previous forecast, bringing the region's population to 3,738,000 by 2040. That total would be equivalent to 57 percent of the state’s population. Most growth will result from natural growth (i.e., more births than deaths). The Twin Cities region will also continue to gain residents through international immigration.

The region will add 495,000 jobs between 2010 and 2040, with more rapid growth in the 2010s and a slower pace in the 2020s and 2030s. Forecasts indicate the region will become more racially and ethnically diverse as well as older. The aging of the population is expected to significantly reshape the housing market, and household sizes will continue to decline. By 2040, one-person households will account for one-third of all households in the region. The population's share of people of color in 2040 will be 39 percent. The number of working-age residents of color will more than double, combined with a near-doubling of children and young adults of color. This will have significant implications for the region's future work force and school enrollments.