Has the renaissance of our urban cores petered out or will the movement of suburban refugees to denser metro neighborhoods continue? Let's see what demographics and economics tell us.
During the recession and post-recession years, between 2006 and 2015, urban areas around the country saw a major influx of new residents as millennials and former-suburb dwellers moved into downtowns and denser urban neighborhoods. Writing in Medium, economist Lyman Stone seeks to find out if this inflow migration to urban cores is a lasting phenomenon or just a "migration bubble." He finds that part of the inflow explanation was driven by cheaper housing in urban areas at the beginning of the recession.
Migrants moved in pursuit of cheaper housing during the recession, with many foreclosed on, and fewer pursuing ownership. This wasn’t because they wanted a better home or a better neighborhood: those reasons became less prevalent. It’s because the relative costs of urban renting suddenly became much more favorable.
As prices in the urban core have increased in comparison to housing costs in suburban areas, the inflow migration has slowed. Essentially, Stone explains, the imbalance that saw people move into urban areas is shifting back to where we were pre-recession as suburbs become the more affordable option once again.
When we look at the last few years of migration, we should see it as a bubble. It was never going to last very long, and was always the product of essentially transient imbalances of in costs that migrants rapidly arbitraged. We are now returning to the normal state of suburban and exurban inflows, and urban outflows.
FULL STORY: How the City Almost Came Back
Downturn Proves Resiliency of Smart Growth
In an interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune, Geoffrey Anderson and Bill Fulton reflect on the new normal for development across the country, which astonishingly to anyone looking back twenty years, has absorbed Smart Growth principles.
Cause of the Housing Bubble, Burst and Recession Revealed: It's Growth Management
Those of us whose professional lives are inextricably linked to the real estate development economy in one way or another have had plenty of time in the last year to twiddle our thumbs and attempt to figure out what the heck happened. This much we know — there was a housing bubble some places, it burst, and the economy collapsed. Have you ever slipped and fell – one those unexpected spectacular aerial feats where your feet fly out from underneath you, you look down your legs and see your toes at eye level pointing to the sky, and you say to yourself “this is really going to hurt when I land”? That’s what this year has been like for many, some of whom are still waiting to hit hard because they had projects in the pipeline and they are grinding their way through “inventory” of unfinished work. Plus, we started from a high plateau. Wall Street types call the unexpected but apparent life in the market during the first part of a recession “dead cat bounce” which Forbes defines as “a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, after which the market continues to fall.” Even a dead cat dropped from a very high place will bounce a little when it hits the ground…
Population and Economic Shifts in the Wake of the Maui Wildfires
The 2023 Maui wildfires have caused significant out-migration, reduced in-migration, and substantial economic losses, reshaping the island’s population and straining its recovery efforts.
Planetizen Federal Action Tracker
A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.
Canada vs. Kamala: Whose Liberal Housing Platform Comes Out on Top?
As Canada votes for a new Prime Minister, what can America learn from the leading liberal candidate of its neighbor to the north?
The Five Most-Changed American Cities
A ranking of population change, home values, and jobs highlights the nation’s most dynamic and most stagnant regions.
San Diego Adopts First Mobility Master Plan
The plan provides a comprehensive framework for making San Diego’s transportation network more multimodal, accessible, and sustainable.
Housing, Supportive Service Providers Brace for Federal Cuts
Organizations that provide housing assistance are tightening their purse strings and making plans for maintaining operations if federal funding dries up.
Op-Ed: Why an Effective Passenger Rail Network Needs Government Involvement
An outdated rail network that privileges freight won’t be fixed by privatizing Amtrak.
Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools
This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.
Planning for Universal Design
Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.
Village of Glen Ellyn
Central Transportation Planning Staff/Boston Region MPO
Heyer Gruel & Associates PA
Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS)
City of Grandview
Harvard GSD Executive Education
Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada
Toledo-Lucas County Plan Commissions