San Francisco's Transbay Transit Center is just the latest example of an urban mega-project experiencing an enormous cost overrun. Eric Jaffe examines what the causes of this all too common phenomenon might be.
"So how did it get to the point where the only thing we can confidently expect from a big infrastructure project is that it will cost way more than expected?"
"One thing's for sure: the people who predict the cost of urban mega-projects do a terrible job," writes Jaffe. "Several years ago the University of Oxford scholar Bent Flyvbjerg, who's made a career researching mega-project mismanagement, analyzed 258 transportation infrastructure projects from around the world and found that nine in ten exceeded their cost estimates. The overruns were greater on rail projects than road projects but averaged 28 percent across the board."
"Whatever the underlying causes of cost overruns may be, there seems to be one promising means of addressing them: creating a 'reference class' of similar projects to serve as a platform for comparing costs. The idea, as explained by [psychologist Daniel] Kahneman in 2003 [PDF], is that old outcomes can serve as a barometer for recognizing just how unrealistic a biased new prediction might be — and help adjust it accordingly. Such a strategy controls for both political chicanery and cognitive biases alike."
FULL STORY: Why Mega-Projects End Up Costing Way More Than Expected
Depopulation Patterns Get Weird
A recent ranking of “declining” cities heavily features some of the most expensive cities in the country — including New York City and a half-dozen in the San Francisco Bay Area.
California Exodus: Population Drops Below 39 Million
Never mind the 40 million that demographers predicted the Golden State would reach by 2018. The state's population dipped below 39 million to 38.965 million last July, according to Census data released in March, the lowest since 2015.
Chicago to Turn High-Rise Offices into Housing
Four commercial buildings in the Chicago Loop have been approved for redevelopment into housing in a bid to revitalize the city’s downtown post-pandemic.
Google Maps Introduces New Transit, EV Features
It will now be easier to find electric car charging stations and transit options.
Ohio Lawmakers Propose Incentivizing Housing Production
A proposed bill would take a carrot approach to stimulating housing production through a grant program that would reward cities that implement pro-housing policies.
Chicago Awarded $2M Reconnecting Communities Grant
Community advocates say the city’s plan may not do enough to reverse the negative impacts of a major expressway.
City of Costa Mesa
Licking County
Barrett Planning Group LLC
HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research
Mpact Transit + Community
HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research
City of Universal City TX
ULI Northwest Arkansas
Town of Zionsville
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