Debate Over How to Measure Ridership Plagues HSR Project

The UC Berkeley Institute of Transportation Studies has issued a report questioning ridership projections on the $43+ billion, 800 mile, voter-approved California High Speed Rail project. Cambridge Systematics defends their numbers.

2 minute read

July 5, 2010, 7:00 AM PDT

By Irvin Dawid


It appears to be a debate between consultants, called "the best firm in the business" by Samer Madanat, director of the Institute for Transportation Studies at UC Berkeley" and ITS itself as to how to forecast ridership for California's most important public works project. The High-Speed Rail Authority board will meet in Los Angeles on July 8 to discuss the finding - the authors of the Institute of Transportation Studies will present its report,and "Cambridge Systematics will defend their forecasts.

"The forecast of ridership is unlikely to be very close to the ridership that would actually materialize if the system were built," said Madanat.

"The UC Berkeley report found several problems with the model, including using a technique later proven inaccurate to determine whether riders would choose to drive, fly or take high-speed rail..."

From Dan Walters: Projections of bullet-train ridership take a hit: "The most important factor in the economic viability of California's bullet train project is the High-Speed Rail Authority's projection of ridership, which critics have contended is much too rosy.

The authority has stoutly defended its projection, taking refuge in a Cambridge Systematics study that said, in effect, ridership would generate sufficient revenue to cover operating costs and investor profits."

From San Mateo County Times: Transportation experts: Don't trust high-speed rail rider estimates:

"A lot is riding on the ridership estimates being accurate.

In addition to being a main justification for spending $43 billion on the state's largest project, the ridership projections are tied to claims that the system will pay for itself once built - with no taxpayer subsidies - and fund extensions to Sacramento and San Diego.

Cambridge CEO Lance Neumann, in responding to the report, said they "stand firmly behind" their work, citing nearly 40 years of experience."

"We emphatically disagree with the author's conclusions that the model is not reliable," Neumann said.

Robert Cruickshank of the California High Speed Rail blog says that the focus on the Berkeley report has over shadowed a study by CALPIRG that shows the success of high-speed rail around the world, and that the media does not understand the high-speed rail story.

Friday, July 2, 2010 in San Francisco Chronicle

courses user

As someone new to the planning field, Planetizen has been the perfect host guiding me into planning and our complex modern challenges. Corey D, Transportation Planner

As someone new to the planning field, Planetizen has been the perfect host guiding me into planning and our complex modern challenges.

Corey D, Transportation Planner

Ready to give your planning career a boost?

View of dense apartment buildings on Seattle waterfront with high-rise buildings in background.

Seattle Legalizes Co-Living

A new state law requires all Washington cities to allow co-living facilities in areas zoned for multifamily housing.

December 1, 2024 - Smart Cities Dive

Times Square in New York City empty during the Covid-19 pandemic.

NYC Officials Announce Broadway Pedestrianization Project

Two blocks of the marquee street will become mostly car-free public spaces.

December 1, 2024 - StreetsBlog NYC

Broken, uneven sidewalk being damaged by large tree roots in Los Angeles, California.

The City of Broken Sidewalks

Can Los Angeles fix 4,000 miles of broken sidewalks before the city hosts the 2028 Olympic Games?

December 5, 2024 - Donald Shoup

View from back of classroom of elementary school children at desks with raised hands engaged in class.

Why Some Affordable Housing Managers Are Running Education Programs

Many housing organizations are finding that educational programs are a logical — and valuable — addition to their offerings.

December 9 - Shelterforce Magazine

Anchorage Public Transportation

Anchorage Bus Depot to Reopen

After a four-year closure, a downtown Anchorage transit center will once again provide indoor waiting areas and services for bus travelers.

December 9 - Anchorage Daily News

Tall mature green trees lining a concrete walkway next to a street with multistory apartment buildings on other side and sun filtering through the leaves.

Mapping a Greener Future: Cal Poly Tackles Urban Canopy Challenges

Cal Poly, in partnership with Cal Fire, is leading the development of California’s new Strategic Plan for Urban Forestry, combining advanced data tools and interdisciplinary collaboration to expand tree canopy cover.

December 9 - Cal Poly News