Demographic modeling is a critical tool in urban planning. But what happens when the model is wrong?
This piece from New Geography looks at the trouble with demographic models and the potential problems that can arise when some pieces of data are wrong.
"The first step in planning for the future is to get a picture of what the terrain is going to look like when you get there. That's mainly what I do for clients, audiences and subscribers, and demographics provide the frame (like assembling all the straight-edge pieces of a jigsaw puzzle first). But here's the thing about projections: a small change at an inflection point, or the inclusion (or exclusion) of salient variables, can result in big changes to the future you are trying to describe. So like all treatments of the future, everything depends on the underlying assumptions, and the salience of the variables chosen for inclusion."
Read the full story: Demographics May Be Destiny, but Mind the Assumptions
Planetizen Federal Action Tracker
A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.
California plans to bury El Niño’s downpour
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Desperate measures: Advocates weigh draining Lake Powell to fill Colorado River
Draining the reservoir could reduce evaporation losses by a couple hundred thousand acre-feet.
Chicago voters approve permanent festival grounds, penalty for vacant property owners
Currently, major summer and fall festivals take over public parks for weeks at a time, drawing criticism from nearby residents
NYC votes to cut outdoor dining red tape, speed up permitting
New York City also voted to allow the Department of Transportation to begin work on urgent projects before notifying elected officials.
California appears to reject Prop. 45
The proposition would have expanded the projects that qualify for a streamlined environmental review, effectively paring down the California Environmental Quality Act.
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