The Traffic Jam Forecast

Traffic sensors on Germany's Autobahn enable researchers to predict traffic jams a day in advance -- with surprising accuracy.

1 minute read

August 20, 2007, 11:00 AM PDT

By Nate Berg


"'Our data pool on traffic flow is our most valuable treasure,' Scherz says. 'And that treasure grows every day.' Already, he can predict most highway traffic jams days in advance as long as the congestion is not caused by accidents, which bring about 20 percent of Hesse's traffic jams. Indeed, the state authorities feel the predictions are so reliable -- with a margin of error of only 10 or 15 minutes -- that Scherz's traffic forecasts will soon hit the radio waves. From September onwards, drivers will know of traffic jams a day before they happen."

"Seeing the traffic future is made possible by thousands of counters on German highways, which are most often just wires placed directly in the asphalt that send real-time info to a central collection point on how many cars are travelling in which direction and the speed at which they are moving. And since the vast majority of drivers behave pretty much the same, further calculations are simple. The more results gathered and analyzed, says Duisburg-based traffic expert Michael Schreckenberg, the more precise the prognoses end up being."

Friday, August 17, 2007 in Der Spiegel

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Use Code 25for25 at checkout for 25% off an annual plan!

Redlining map of Oakland and Berkeley.

Rethinking Redlining

For decades we have blamed 100-year-old maps for the patterns of spatial racial inequity that persist in American cities today. An esteemed researcher says: we’ve got it all wrong.

May 15, 2025 - Alan Mallach

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

May 21, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Rendering of California High-Speed Rail station with bullet train.

California High-Speed Rail's Plan to Right Itself

The railroad's new CEO thinks he can get the project back on track. The stars will need to align this summer.

May 19, 2025 - Benjamin Schneider

Red SF Muni ticketing machine.

San Francisco Muni Raises Fares a Second Time

A 10–cent fare hike for adults is part of the agency’s plan to chip away at a growing budget deficit.

May 21 - San Francisco Examiner

Electric car charging station with several Chevy Bolts charging in parking lot of store in Bellingham, Washington

Electric Grid Capacity Could Hamstring EV Growth

Industry leaders say the U.S. electric grid is unprepared for the increased demand for power created by electric cars, data centers, and electric homes.

May 21 - GovTech

Top view new development riverside residential and commercial neighborhood with vacant land in Texas, USA.

Texas Bill Supports Adaptive Reuse in Commercial Areas

Senate Bill 840, which was preliminarily approved by the state House, would allow residential construction in areas previously zoned for offices and commercial uses.

May 21 - The Texas Tribune