The News Is Not All Bad

The most recent version of Streetsblog (a news site focusing on transportation issues) was full of bad news for transit users, proclaiming that the Trump Administration “is expected to severely cut funding for Amtrak, transit and high-speed rail unless Democrats somehow manage to take back the House” and that “Donald Trump's victory is a blow against transit, traffic safety and urbanism in general.”

But Republicans had complete control of government for part of President Trump's first term in 2017 and 2018, and somehow managed to avoid destroying public transit. Moreover, there is one reason why Congressional Republicans might actually be less hostile to transit than they were seven years ago.

In the 2016 election, the nation was sharply polarized along urban/rural lines. For example, Trump won most rural counties in New York but received less than 10 percent of the vote in the Bronx and Manhattan, less than 20 percent of the vote in Brooklyn, and only 22 percent of the vote in Queens. By contrast, in 2024 urban voters swung right. Even in Manhattan, Trump got 17 percent of the vote, nearly double his 2016 share. Trump's vote share rose to 27 percent in Brooklyn and 37 percent in Queens.

Trump made more modest gains in other transit-oriented cities and counties between 2016 and 2024. In Philadelphia, his share rose from 15 percent to 20 percent. In Cook County, Illinois (which includes Chicago) his share rose from 20 percent to 29 percent. In Suffolk County, Massachusetts (which includes Boston) his vote share appears to have risen from 16 percent to 23 percent. Even in San Francisco, Trump's vote share rose from 9 percent to 15 percent. Republican gains showed up in non-Presidential races as well: for example, so far Republican Senate candidate David McCormick has gotten about 18 percent of Philadelphia votes, while his 2018 counterpart Lou Barletta got only 12 percent. 

Why does this matter? Because politicians listen to their voters, and if a higher percentage of Republican voters are transit users, this should (other things being equal) lead to more transit-friendly Republican politicians.

Of course, I realize not everything else is equal. Who becomes Secretary of Transportation, who chairs relevant committees, and the future Trump administration's general attitude toward the size of government will matter. My sense is that generally, Trump has favored spending-heavy, debt-friendly “big government conservatism” over more libertarian conservatism. But that attitude might not be reflected in what lower-level political appointees do, and might change over time.