The Perilous Future of Bay Area Transit

Once an agency with the nation’s highest farebox recovery ratio, San Francisco’s Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system now faces an uncertain future, writes Ricardo Cano in the San Francisco Chronicle.

With ridership remaining low, “In its worst-case scenario, BART would impose mass layoffs, close on weekends, shutter two of its five lines and nine of its 50 stations and run trains as infrequently as once per hour.” Even worse, “Those deep cuts, agency officials say, could lead to the demise of BART.” Cano outlines the system’s current state, noting that BART will run out of federal funding in January 2025, a situation much more severe for agencies like BART that rely heavily on fare revenue. While officials have proposed a variety of potential solutions, there is no long-term plan yet.

Cano points out that “A Bay Area without BART, however unimaginable, would further fragment public transit, worsen traffic congestion on highways and bridges, and erode the natural flow of a region so profoundly shaped by the rail system.”

BART General Manager Bob Powers says the agency has to change its revenue model. “Instead of relying mostly on fares, we must invert our funding formula to rely more heavily on subsidies and a sustainable source of revenue that recognizes ridership recovery will take years.” California transit agencies are asking for a state subsidy, while BART is pushing for a local ballot measure. But according to Cano, “Newsom’s January budget included $2 billion in cuts to transit projects with no subsidy, highlighting the challenges of securing a state bailout.”