Lessons for Transit Ridership From Past Pandemics

'What does history suggest will happen to transit ridership in America after COVID-19?' asks an article by Jake Blumgart, noting that "It’s impossible to know when, or if, ridership will ever fully recover because there’s no comparable analog to this moment in America’s modern history."

The unique challenges of our era don't compare to the 1918 flu pandemic, when remote work was essentially non-existent and people needed to leave their homes to complete daily tasks. At the same time, governments did not provide economic support, making staying at home and social distancing out of the question, and most Americans did not yet own automobiles. At that time, most transit users had no choice but to continue riding. Today, remote work and widespread car ownership allow more riders to choose a different option, despite the steps taken by transit agencies to reduce the chance of transmission on trains and buses.

As Blumgart writes, the 2003 SARS epidemic presents a more apt comparison. "A 2014 study by Kuo-Ying Wang found that for every new SARS case reported by the media, 1,200 subway users were lost. If anything remotely close to that holds, transit systems in the U.S. will have a long, long path to recovery." Facing continuing uncertainty, American transit agencies are debating a variety of options for adjusting service to better serve post-COVID travel patterns.