Some developed countries in the world are expected to lose half of their population, in a development that might seem impossible while the world population continues its climb toward 8 billion.
"The world's population is likely to peak at 9.7 billion in 2064, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by the end of the century," reports Amy Woodyat, sharing news from a study by researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine.
"By 2100, 183 of 195 countries will not have fertility rates required to maintain the current population, with a projected 2.1 births per woman," according to Woodyat. "Some 23 countries -- including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain -- will see populations shrink by more than 50%, researchers said."
One exception to the trend, according to the projections, will be sub-Saharan Africa, where the population could triple by 2100.
The changing birth rate and expected population decline is credited to better education and access to birth control for women. The consequences of a worldwide population decline could include declining economic growth and "negative implications" for labor forces and social support systems, according to Woodyat's explanation of the study. "The authors suggest that population decline could be offset by immigration, and that countries with liberal immigration policies will be better able to both maintain population size and support economic growth -- even as fertility falls."
More coverage on the new study is also available from The Guardian.
Related on Planetizen: "What Happened to the Population Bomb?" (June 2015)
FULL STORY: World's population likely to shrink after 50 years
Depopulation Projected in Thousands of US Cities
Many small and mid-sized cities could see a decline before 2100.
California Decline: Population Likely Peaked Three Years Ago
A July projection from the state's Demographic Research Unit indicates that the population in 2060 may be about what it is today.
Census: U.S. Population Growing Slower Than Any Point Since the Nation's Founding
The pandemic has added increased mortality to decreasing birth rates and decreasing international immigration.
Planetizen Federal Action Tracker
A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.
Congressman Proposes Bill to Rename DC Metro “Trump Train”
The Make Autorail Great Again Act would withhold federal funding to the system until the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA), rebrands as the Washington Metropolitan Authority for Greater Access (WMAGA).
The Simple Legislative Tool Transforming Vacant Downtowns
In California, Michigan and Georgia, an easy win is bringing dollars — and delight — back to city centers.
The States Losing Rural Delivery Rooms at an Alarming Pace
In some states, as few as 9% of rural hospitals still deliver babies. As a result, rising pre-term births, no adequate pre-term care and harrowing close calls are a growing reality.
The Small South Asian Republic Going all in on EVs
Thanks to one simple policy change less than five years ago, 65% of new cars in this Himalayan country are now electric.
DC Backpedals on Bike Lane Protection, Swaps Barriers for Paint
Citing aesthetic concerns, the city is removing the concrete barriers and flexposts that once separated Arizona Avenue cyclists from motor vehicles.
Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools
This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.
Planning for Universal Design
Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.
Smith Gee Studio
City of Charlotte
City of Camden Redevelopment Agency
City of Astoria
Transportation Research & Education Center (TREC) at Portland State University
US High Speed Rail Association
City of Camden Redevelopment Agency
Municipality of Princeton (NJ)