Op-Ed: The Texas Miracle Won't Last

As economic migration continues to swell its population, Texas has been heralded by some as a new California. But Johnny Sanphillippo argues that the Lone Star State's boom just isn't sustainable.

2 minute read

June 22, 2016, 10:00 AM PDT

By Philip Rojc @PhilipRojc


Texas Suburb

SoleilC / Shutterstock

Anyone who's searched for housing in California these days can understand the appeal of Texas. Despite (or because of) its powerhouse economy, California is losing a stream of migrants to its rival and peer.

California's troubles have been debated ad nauseam. Johnny Sanphillippo writes, "Conservatives love to blame pointed headed liberals and their tree-hugging tendencies for the decline. Liberals love to blame conservatives and their thinly veiled racism and greed. But it was absolutely a group effort with plenty of overlap. [...] Don't tax me was the middle ground everyone coalesced around from Marin to Orange County. Don't change the character of our community echoed from San Francisco to Costa Mesa."

But the economic charms of Texas may soon fade. Risks include an environmentally and fiscally unsustainable pattern of development and the state's conservative politics, which will likely forestall California-style regulation. "There may be an endless amount of flat easily developed land in Texas, but the cost of maintaining an equally endless amount of horizontal infrastructure will inevitably outstrip tax revenue over the next generation. The Texas Department of Transportation is already hitting the wall in terms of revenue-to-expenditure."

Moreover, "Texas has long enjoyed the booms of hydrocarbon production and muddled through the busts of low oil  and gas prices. But the cheap, easily extracted stuff is mostly gone after a century of drilling. [...] At a certain point, even Texas will have to start making hard choices about how to keep all the cars and air conditioners humming along in a low cost, low tax, low regulation environment."

Wednesday, June 1, 2016 in Strong Towns

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Use Code 25for25 at checkout for 25% off an annual plan!

Redlining map of Oakland and Berkeley.

Rethinking Redlining

For decades we have blamed 100-year-old maps for the patterns of spatial racial inequity that persist in American cities today. An esteemed researcher says: we’ve got it all wrong.

May 15, 2025 - Alan Mallach

Interior of Place Versailles mall in Montreal, Canada.

Montreal Mall to Become 6,000 Housing Units

Place Versailles will be transformed into a mixed-use complex over the next 25 years.

May 22, 2025 - CBC

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

May 21, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Flat modern glass office tower with "County of Santa Clara" sign.

Santa Clara County Dedicates Over $28M to Affordable Housing

The county is funding over 600 new affordable housing units via revenue from a 2016 bond measure.

May 23 - San Francisco Chronicle

Aerial view of dense urban center with lines indicating smart city concept.

Why a Failed ‘Smart City’ Is Still Relevant

A Google-backed proposal to turn an underused section of Toronto waterfront into a tech hub holds relevant lessons about privacy and data.

May 23 - Governing

Pale yellow Sears kit house with red tile roof in Sylva, North Carolina.

When Sears Pioneered Modular Housing

Kit homes sold in catalogs like Sears and Montgomery Ward made homeownership affordable for midcentury Americans.

May 23 - The Daily Yonder