Study: Urbanization Not a Silver Bullet for Economic Growth

A study comparing urbanization and per capita GDP between 1980 and 2011 questions common assumptions about the connections between economic growth and cities.

1 minute read

October 23, 2014, 2:00 PM PDT

By James Brasuell @CasualBrasuell


Shanghai Shopping

TonyV3112 / Shutterstock

Alex Theg writes of a new study by researchers in China and published in PLOS ONE that complicates the conventional thinking that leads to national governments and international development agencies to pursue accelerated urbanization in the hopes of spurring economic growth. "Simply attract people into the cities, the thinking goes, and then cash in on the forthcoming economic benefits of a largely urban population."

The study, titled "The Global Pattern of Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades," found no correlation between the rates of urbanization and economic growth. "In other words, fast urban growth doesn’t always translate into fast GDP growth, as witnessed by the graph below," explains Theg.

"The authors of the study argue that GDP growth may create conditions that organically drive migration from rural to urban areas, but the assumption that urbanization will necessarily drive strong economic growth may be false."

So if urbanization doesn't correlate to urbanization, what does? "Citing other work, the authors suggest that instead of trying to move people into cities, governments and development agencies should focus on creating a mobile workforce, ensuring broad access to goods and markets, implementing government policies that support commerce, and investing in infrastructure." 

Monday, October 20, 2014 in PLOS ONE

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Close-up of "Apartment for rent" sign in red text on black background in front of blurred building

Trump Administration Could Effectively End Housing Voucher Program

Federal officials are eyeing major cuts to the Section 8 program that helps millions of low-income households pay rent.

April 21, 2025 - Housing Wire

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

April 23, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Black and white photos of camp made up of small 'earthquake shacks' in Dolores Park in 1906 after the San Francisco earthquake.

The 120 Year Old Tiny Home Villages That Sheltered San Francisco’s Earthquake Refugees

More than a century ago, San Francisco mobilized to house thousands of residents displaced by the 1906 earthquake. Could their strategy offer a model for the present?

April 15, 2025 - Charles F. Bloszies

Millbrae BART station.

HSR Reaches Key Settlement in Northern California City

The state’s high-speed rail authority reached an agreement with Millbrae, a key city on the train’s proposed route to San Francisco.

6 hours ago - San Diego Post

Spiral ramp on exterior of parking garage in downtown Spokane, Washington.

Washington State Legislature Passes Parking Reform Bill

A bill that would limit parking requirements for new developments is headed to the governor’s desk.

April 24 - OPB

Missouri state capitol dome in Jefferson City, MO.

Missouri Law Would Ban Protections for Housing Voucher Users

A state law seeks to overturn source-of-income discrimination bans passed by several Missouri cities.

April 24 - Missouri Independent