The New Traffic Forecast: Modest Growth, then Decline

Clark Williams-Derry shares news of what he calls "far and away the most responsible official traffic forecast I’ve seen from any government agency, ever."

1 minute read

October 21, 2014, 10:00 AM PDT

By James Brasuell @CasualBrasuell


Houston's downtown skyline

D.L. / Flickr

The forecast in question is a transportation revenue forecast [pdf] recently published by the Washington State Office of Financial Management.

"Their forecast from last September, in pink, assumed that traffic would grow endlessly, much as it did during the 1950s through 1990s," writes Williams-Derry. "But the new forecast, in blue, assumes that the modest traffic growth of the past decade will continue, and will then be followed by a slight decline."

As for why the forecast is significant, Williams-Derry explains: "When you find yourself in a hole, the first step is to stop digging. And that’s exactly what this new forecast does: it helps transportation policymakers stop digging all of us deeper into highway-fueled debt."

Tuesday, October 21, 2014 in Sightline Daily

Young Professional

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban and Environmental Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban and Environmental Planner

Get top-rated, practical training for planners

"Planetizen federal action tracker" logo superimposed over black and white image of US Capitol dome.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

October 28, 2026 - Zachary Whalen

A car drives through a puddle, making a large splash. Rain pours down.

California plans to bury El Niño’s downpour

If the state plays its cards right, it may be able to store a billion acre-feet of El Niño’s water in aquifers.

October 28, 2026 - Grist

A pencil rendering of Foundry Park, which shows skyscrapers and public green spaces.

Chicago breaks ground on $3 billion megadevelopment

The new neighborhood, titled Foundry Park, will one day host 3,700 residences.

October 23, 2026 - Chicago Sun Times

Lake Powell with much of the water evaporated.

Desperate measures: Advocates weigh draining Lake Powell to fill Colorado River

Draining the reservoir could reduce evaporation losses by a couple hundred thousand acre-feet.

4 seconds ago - Yale Environment 360

An Ariel view of Ocean Parkway, a busy six-lane highway

This road in NYC is infamously dangerous — and Mamdani can't fix it

New York City's Ocean Parkway is known for reckless driving, but the power to implement safety measures lies with the state rather than the city.

1 hour ago - Gothamist

People walking in Denver next to a red bus.

One of Denver’s busiest corridors to gain BRT

The project will span 18 miles and contain 74 bus rapid transit stations.

October 29 - Transportation Today News