Study: Housing Crisis is About Affordability, not Supply

A study from the University of Kansas reveals that the United States housing market doesn’t lack supply overall, but suffers from a dearth of affordable units for very low-income households in all of the nation’s markets.

The study “examined U.S. Census Bureau data from 2000 to 2020 to compare the number of households formed to the number of housing units added to determine if there were more households needing homes than units available.” According to the authors, “only four of the nation’s 381 metropolitan areas experienced a housing shortage in the study time frame, as did only 19 of the country’s 526 "micropolitan" areas — those with 10,000-50,000 residents.”

According to the authors, stemming the housing crisis requires that policymakers address low incomes and high housing costs, not just supply. The study found that “from 2000 to 2020, housing production exceeded the growth of households by 3.3 million units. The surplus from 2000 to 2010 more than offset the shortages from 2010 to 2020.” However, almost all metropolitan areas have a shortage of units available to the lowest-income renters.

The study shows that the vacancy rate at the end of 2020 was 9.7 percent, with almost 14 million units available. The authors note that “Of course, there are many factors that determine if a vacant is truly available; namely, if it is physically habitable and how much it costs to purchase or rent the unit.” Professor Kirk McClure adds, “There are also considerations over a family’s needs such as an adequate number of bedrooms or accessibility for individuals with disabilities, but the number of homes needed has not outpaced the number of homes available.”

The authors conclude, “Helping people afford the housing stock that is available would be more cost effective than expanding new home construction in the hope that additional supply would bring prices down.”