COVID Isn’t to Blame for the Retail Vacancy Crisis

In an article for Slate, Leah Brooks and Rachel Meltzer describe how the retail vacancy crisis began well before the COVID pandemic that accelerated it.

According to the authors, “Since 2012, almost a decade before we can attribute any decline to COVID, the amount of newly leased retail square feet flatlined and even declined in some cities. Also since 2012, retail rents have flattened or declined, and retail spaces sit empty longer between tenants.”

The article asserts that most cities’ zoning codes call for too much retail, leading to inevitable vacancies. This is in part “Perhaps because zoning for ground-floor retail is practically an act of faith among urban planners,” who operate on the belief that mixed-use zoning with ground-floor retail leads to vibrant, walkable neighborhoods. “However, the benefits from this type of planning are nullified when those storefronts sit vacant. Streetscapes pockmarked with dark windows and sidewalks with less foot traffic and fewer eyes can invite illicit and unsafe activity and may even suppress demand for living near those corridors.”

As online shopping and remote work continue to grow, there is no foreseeable resurgence in brick-and-mortar retail, the authors argue. Planners should focus on concentrating retail near transit hubs and mixed-use developments while allowing for residential conversions of spaces where it makes sense.