New Data from Israel Brings Good and Bad News on Pfizer Vaccine Effectiveness

Steve Hendrix, Jerusalem bureau chief of The Washington Post, reports on June 28 about the rise in new coronavirus infections in Israel that so far has yet to result in significant new hospitalizations.

“This past week, there has been a rise in the number of people testing positive in Israel, but there hasn’t been a complementary rise in the number of people hospitalized,” Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said. “But we need to know, the delta variant does infect vaccinated people.”

Israel has vaccinated almost 59 percent of its population with both shots of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or the Moderna vaccines, and about 62 percent with at least one shot. Its pace made it one of the first countries to vaccinate its way out of most covid-related restrictions. As a result, restaurants, beaches and synagogues have been crowded up to pre-pandemic levels in recent weeks.

By comparison, only 47% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated, and 55% with at least one dose on July 6, according to The New York Times global vaccination tracker.

A significant drop in vaccine effectiveness

"According to updated data from the Ministry of Health, the effectiveness of the vaccine against infection has dropped to 64% in the last month, against the background of the spread of the Delta strain and the abolition of restrictions," reports Adir Janko for Ynet on July 4. "However, the protection against serious illness and hospitalization is still very high." 

In June, before the subsequent point outbreaks expanded significantly - the effectiveness of the vaccine in Israel in protecting against infection was 94.3% on average.

In contrast, from June 6 - five days after the abolition of all corona restrictions - until Tuesday [June 29] , the effectiveness of the vaccine against corona infection dropped to only 64%.

To be clear, measuring "infections" means counting everyone who tests positive for COVID-19, regardless of the degree of their symptoms, if any. The new data was much more reassuring for measuring effectiveness against serious illness.

According to the data, between May 2 and June 5, the effectiveness rate of the vaccine in preventing hospitalization was 98.2%, compared with 93% between June 6 and July 3 - a decrease of about five percent. 

A rise in vaccine breakthrough infections 

"About half of adults infected in an outbreak of the Delta variant of Covid-19 in Israel were fully inoculated with the Pfizer Inc. vaccine," reports Dov Lieber for The Wall Street Journal from Tel Aviv on June 25.

Preliminary findings by Israeli health officials suggest about 90% of new infections were likely caused by the Delta variant, according to Ran Balicer, who leads an expert advisory panel on Covid-19 for the government. Children under 16, most of whom haven’t been vaccinated, accounted for about half of those infected, he said.

About 80% of Israelis of age 16 and above have received two doses of the vaccine that was developed by Pfizer and German partner BioNTech SE.

By comparison, in the United States, 58.3% of the adult (18+) population has been fully vaccinated on July 6, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Return of the mask mandate

The focus of the source article is not on the return of the mask mandate but that other restrictions will not be reinstated, as Prime Minister Bennett explained. 

“Our attitude is simple: maximum protection for the citizens of Israel with minimum damage to routine and the Israeli economy. Masks instead of restrictions. Vaccines instead of lockdowns,” said Bennett, who issued an appeal Monday [June 28] for young people to get their shots before portions of Israel’s vaccine dose stockpile reach their expiration dates.

Unlike the masking guidance from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health issued on June 28 (posted here), the Health Ministry issued a mask mandate three days earlier.

In light of the rising infection rates, the Ministry of Health announces that effective today (25.6.2021) at 12:00, masking is required anywhere except outdoors, save for the permanent place of residence.

"Reimposing the mask requirement is a setback for Israel, coming so quickly after it was lifted on June 15 on the back of a successful vaccination campaign," reported Agence France-Presse (via Al Jazeera) on June 25.

Implications for the U.S.?

The Biden administration has been drumming in the message that you are safe if you are vaccinated, and if you are unvaccinated, you are vulnerable to infection.

"If you have been fully vaccinated, you are protected. If you're not vaccinated, you are not protected,"  White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Jeff Zients told Dana Bash, host of CNN's State of the Union, in an interview on Sunday, July 4. [See transcript.] "So, we're going to double down on our efforts to vaccinate millions of more Americans across July and August."

The new data from Israel shows that even those who are fully vaccinated are not entirely safe. The public health departments of Los Angeles County and the St. Louis metropolitan area in Missouri recognize that vulnerability and have recommended that their residents mask up when indoors in public places.

Related:

• Los Angeles County First to Recommend Resumption of Indoor Masking, July 6, 2021
• Pandemic Paradox: World's Most Vaccinated Country Also the Most Infected, May 14, 2021
• Will Israel Show Us the Way Out of the Pandemic? February 14, 2021
• Biden: Masks, Not Vaccines, Are Best Defense in Near Term, January 26, 2021

Hat tip to Fenit Nirappil for linking the source article in his piece on the Los Angeles County Indoor Masking recommendation.