Does Density Aggravate the COVID-19 Pandemic? Early Findings and Lessons for Planners

A new study finds that county density is not significantly related to the infection rate, but higher density counties have significantly lower virus-related mortality rates than those with lower densities, possibly due to superior health care.

2 minute read

July 2, 2020, 6:00 AM PDT

By Todd Litman


Coronavirus Social Distancing

rblfmr / Shutterstock

Problem, research strategy, and findings: The impact of density on emerging highly contagious infectious diseases has rarely been studied. In theory, dense areas lead to more face-to-face interaction among residents, which makes them potential hotspots for the rapid spread of pandemics. On the other hand, dense areas may have better access to health care facilities and greater implementation of social distancing policies and practices. The current COVID-19 pandemic is a perfect case study to investigate these relationships.

A new study by researchers Shima Hamidi, Sadegh Sabouri and Reid Ewing, Does Density Aggravate the COVID-19 Pandemic?, published in the Journal of the American Planning Association, uses sophisticated modeling to account for both direct and indirect impacts of density on the COVID-19 infection and mortality rates for 913 U.S. metropolitan counties, controlling for key confounding factors. The results indicate that larger metropolitan areas have higher infection and mortality rates, but after controlling for metropolitan population size, county density is not significantly related to the infection rate, and higher density counties have significantly lower virus-related mortality rates than do those with lower densities, possibly due to superior health care systems.

Takeaway for practice: These findings suggest that connectivity matters more than density in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Large metropolitan areas with a higher number of counties tightly linked together through economic, social, and commuting relationships are the most vulnerable to the pandemic outbreaks. They are more likely to exchange tourists and business people within themselves and with other parts, thus increasing the risk of cross-border infections. This study concludes with a key recommendation that planners continue to advocate dense development for a host of reasons, including lower death rates due to infectious diseases like COVID-19.

Wednesday, July 1, 2020 in Journal Of The American Planning Association

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Use Code 25for25 at checkout for 25% off an annual plan!

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

May 14, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Front of Walmart store with sign.

Walmart Announces Nationwide EV Charging Network

The company plans to install electric car chargers at most of its stores by 2030.

May 7, 2025 - Inc.

Aerial view of Chicago with river in foreground.

Chicago Approves Green Affordable Housing Plan

The Mayor’s plan calls for creating a nonprofit housing corporation tasked with building affordable housing that meets Green Building standards.

May 8, 2025 - CBS News Chicago

Man reaching for young girl sliding down playground slide.

Quantifying Social Infrastructure

New developments have clear rules for ensuring surrounding roads, water, and sewers can handle new users. Why not do the same for community amenities?

30 minutes ago - Happy Cities

View of downtown Dallas, Texas skyline with skyscrapers against twilight sky.

Dallas Code Reform Makes Way for Missing Middle Housing

The Dallas City Council voted to change the city’s building code to allow up to eight residential units in three-story buildings.

1 hour ago - Strong Towns

Wire sign over street "Welcome to Chinatown" in New York City.

Mahjong Game Highlights Displacement of Seniors in NYC’s Chinatown

‘Aging Out of Place’ explores the mechanisms that displace vulnerable seniors, and how the community can help preserve key resources and institutions.

2 hours ago - Next City