The Pandemic's New Epicenter

The coronavirus arrived late to South America, giving the continent time to prepare so as to avoid the outbreaks seen in Europe and North America. "Jarbas Barbosa da Silva Jr., the assistant director of the Latin American office of the World Health Organization [the Pan American Health Organization], flew throughout the region this year to meet with health ministries," reports Terrence McCoy, The Washington Post's Brazil correspondent.

In early March, Barbosa said every country was making plans. Cases were then very low — not a single instance of community transmission had been registered in Latin America — but everyone appeared to be taking the disease seriously.

In addition to time, the region had an advantage similar to the East Asian success stories—it had dealt with infectious disease recently: the 2015–2016 Zika virus epidemic. Countries took the threat serious and imposed restrictions.

Chile issued a 90-day national emergency declaration within days of its first cases, restricting freedom of movement and banning public gatherings. Argentina closed its borders. In Peru, President Martín Vizcarra imposed perhaps the strictest measures in the region, allowing people to leave their homes only to buy food and medicine.

But despite the diversity in approaches — from the draconian in Peru to the laissez-faire in Brazil — many countries are ending up in roughly the same place: watching cases surge, with little political or institutional capacity to flatten their ascent.

Favelas not conducive to social distancing

McCoy blames the failure on factors related to urban poverty plus related woes including "inequality, corruption, and plunging faith in institutions."

How it got to this point has been a case study in the difficulties of controlling a pandemic in the developing world. Policies such as social distancing and isolation — which must be maintained for weeks to have any effect — have proved simply untenable in countries where many people live crowded in urban slums [favelas] and must work every day to survive.

The projections for Brazil, which has the third-highest deaths after the U.S. and the U.K, are grim.

The Pan American Health Organization last week urged a recommitment to social distancing in Brazil to avert a calamity. Its projections showed that 88,000 people could die by August. Researchers at the University of Washington put their death toll still higher — around 125,000 by August.