New Models of Risk Assessment Needed in Wildfire Zones

About 350,000 residents have lost wildfire insurance in recent years, as a series of catastrophic fires have swept the state of California and insurance industry struggles to keep up with climate change.

1 minute read

October 24, 2019, 9:00 AM PDT

By James Brasuell @CasualBrasuell


Fuel Break Wildfire

Pacific Southwest Region USFWS / Flickr

Wildfire insurance is out of reach for many Californians, according to an article by Gireesh Shrimali, and the industry needs to adjust to the new climate realities of the state.

"Over the past several years, premiums have risen significantly – as much as 300% to 500% [pdf] in many cases. And in many high-risk areas, insurers are increasingly opting not to renew coverage," according to Shrimali. In all, 350,000 Californians have lost insurance coverage since a second year of catastrophic fires hit the state in 2018.

According to Shrimali, California needs a new way to calculate risk given the challenges of climate change in the state.

Challenges for insurers include the increasing severity of risk, the danger of adverse selection (when low-risk customers subsidize high-risk customers), and the effects of spiraling premiums.

To manage these risks, Shrimali suggests a few specific measures that would achieve better models for assessing and pricing risk as well as steps to ensure a "robust and guaranteed demand for wildfire insurance, which will attract private insurers into the market."

Thursday, October 17, 2019 in The Conversation

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

June 11, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Rendering of Shirley Chisholm Village four-story housing development with person biking in front.

San Francisco's School District Spent $105M To Build Affordable Housing for Teachers — And That's Just the Beginning

SFUSD joins a growing list of school districts using their land holdings to address housing affordability challenges faced by their own employees.

June 8, 2025 - Fast Company

Yellow single-seat Japanese electric vehicle drivign down road.

The Tiny, Adorable $7,000 Car Turning Japan Onto EVs

The single seat Mibot charges from a regular plug as quickly as an iPad, and is about half the price of an average EV.

June 6, 2025 - PC Magazine

White Waymo autonomous car driving fast down city street with blurred background at night.

Seattle's Plan for Adopting Driverless Cars

Equity, safety, accessibility and affordability are front of mind as the city prepares for robotaxis and other autonomous vehicles.

June 16 - Smart Cities Dive

Two small wooden one-story homes in Florida with floodwaters at their doors.

As Trump Phases Out FEMA, Is It Time to Flee the Floodplains?

With less federal funding available for disaster relief efforts, the need to relocate at-risk communities is more urgent than ever.

June 16 - Governing

People riding bicycles on separated bike trail.

With Protected Lanes, 460% More People Commute by Bike

For those needing more ammo, more data proving what we already knew is here.

June 16 - UNM News