Handicapping the Self-Driving Horse Race

"In the race to start the world’s first driving business without human drivers, everyone is chasing Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo."

That's the provocative opening pronouncement in a big, feature-length article by David Welch and Elisabeth Behrmann.

"The Google sibling has cleared the way to beat its nearest rivals, General Motors Co. and a couple of other players, by at least a year to introduce driverless cars to the public," add Welch and Behrmann.

Still, the article acknowledges that "[t]he road to autonomy is long and exceedingly complicated," and there will be a plenty of surprising developments along the way. Experts quoted in the article, like Brian Collie, head of Boston Consulting Group’s U.S. automotive practice, expect there to be only a few winners when the competition is over. To the victors go the spoils: "Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts that robo-taxis will help the ride-hailing and -sharing business grow from $5 billion in revenue today to $285 billion by 2030," write Welch and Behrmann.

After introducing the playing field, and leading theories about how and when autonomous vehicles will take over the roads, the article breaks down a survey of the emerging industry into categories: 1) The clear Leaders, 2) Staying Close, 3) Following the Pack, and 4) Unusual Cases and Dark Horses.