A Look at Houston's Demographic Future

Using the Urban Institute's Mapping America's Futures tool, the Kinder Institute overviews likely racial demographics in Texas and elsewhere by 2030.

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January 5, 2018, 11:00 AM PST

By Philip Rojc @PhilipRojc


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A piece from Rice University's Kinder Institute for Urban Research looks at potential demographic futures in Houston and elsewhere. Its tool of choice: the Urban Institute's interactive Mapping America's Futures interface. Leah Binkovitz writes: "Assuming an average birth rate, death rate and average migration rate, the Houston area is expected to add roughly 2.2 million people between 2010 and 2030. That's a 37.68 percent increase. The area's white population appears pretty flat in this scenario, while the Hispanic population rises steadily above 3 million by 2030."

Under the same parameters, more modest growth is expected from Dallas and Fort Worth, while San Antonio may see a 33.4 percent population increase. Austin's growth may be steeper still, at 46.93 percent. "Outside Texas, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Orlando and Raleigh all showed large projected increases."

On the national level, Hispanic population is set to increase at a rapid clip through 2030. In Houston, the racial group denoted "Other, which refers here to any non-Hispanic, non-white and non-black groups, including American Indians, Asian, Pacific Islanders and other groups," will also see significant growth from relatively low starting numbers. "Under average rate assumptions, that population would grow 117.26 percent between 2010 and 2030, according to the Urban Institute."

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