When vacancy rates rise, rents should fall. In New York, reports disagree about how much vacancy rates are about to increase, and whether rents will drop at all.
"New York apartment landlords could face a grim reckoning next year as the vacancy rate soars to more than 11%, far outpacing the rate in the rest of the country," reports Josh Barbanel.
That prediction originates from a new forecast from Ten-X Commercial, an online marketplace for real estate. "It noted that the rate of job growth, a driver of the rental market, already has begun to slow," according to Barbanel.
The forecast stops short of describing the market rest as a doomsday scenario, explains Barbanel, "because lenders have been much more conservative in their underwriting during the current economic cycle."
Barbanel also found some New York real estate experts who disagreed with the report's assessment. Reis Inc, for instance, recently produced its own forecast that predicts a vacancy rate of 6.1% in 2018. Reis predicts rent growth will slow, not decline, while Ten-X Commercial predicts rents will decline by an annual average of 2.7% through 2020.
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