Research: Gentrification Follows Falling Crime

It isn't exactly a surprising correlation: gentrification and decreases in crime. This research finds that falling crime often precedes gentrification, not the other way around.

1 minute read

February 1, 2017, 9:00 AM PST

By Philip Rojc @PhilipRojc


Seattle Brick Loft

Nat Wilson / Flickr

Throughout last year's election, too often the only references to planning dealt with (often erroneous) statements about an urban crime crisis. Sad! Presidential rhetoric aside, it's a fact that, nationally, "violent crime peaked in 1991. It fell precipitously for the next decade, then more slowly through the 2000s [...] While homicides have increased recently in some cities, rates remain far below what they were 25 years ago, including in Chicago."

Emily Badger covers research suggesting an unsurprising link between gentrification and falling crime. "The new research looked at confidential geocoded data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses, and more recent American Community Surveys, to identify the neighborhoods where more than four million households moved."

Influxes of higher earners occurred after crime dropped, not before. "Because this research looked at moves that occurred after crime was already falling, the authors believe the movers were reacting to changes in crime and not simply causing it themselves."

One aspect of this could be that neighborhoods were already depopulated, limiting displacement. "Many of the urban neighborhoods studied had lost population, so they had room to grow again without pushing existing residents out." Of course, higher rents citywide still have consequences for equity. 

Thursday, January 5, 2017 in The New York Times

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Use Code 25for25 at checkout for 25% off an annual plan!

Redlining map of Oakland and Berkeley.

Rethinking Redlining

For decades we have blamed 100-year-old maps for the patterns of spatial racial inequity that persist in American cities today. An esteemed researcher says: we’ve got it all wrong.

May 15, 2025 - Alan Mallach

Interior of Place Versailles mall in Montreal, Canada.

Montreal Mall to Become 6,000 Housing Units

Place Versailles will be transformed into a mixed-use complex over the next 25 years.

May 22, 2025 - CBC

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

May 21, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Flat modern glass office tower with "County of Santa Clara" sign.

Santa Clara County Dedicates Over $28M to Affordable Housing

The county is funding over 600 new affordable housing units via revenue from a 2016 bond measure.

May 23 - San Francisco Chronicle

Aerial view of dense urban center with lines indicating smart city concept.

Why a Failed ‘Smart City’ Is Still Relevant

A Google-backed proposal to turn an underused section of Toronto waterfront into a tech hub holds relevant lessons about privacy and data.

May 23 - Governing

Pale yellow Sears kit house with red tile roof in Sylva, North Carolina.

When Sears Pioneered Modular Housing

Kit homes sold in catalogs like Sears and Montgomery Ward made homeownership affordable for midcentury Americans.

May 23 - The Daily Yonder