Getting it Right on U.S Energy Independence

"The United States imported 9.4 million barrels [per day, or bpd] of crude and petroleum products in 2015, and imports are on the rise this year, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration [EIA] data," writes Tom DiChristopher for CNBC. "Of the 2015 total, 2.9 million [bpd] came from OPEC countries, and 1.5 million [bpd] came from Persian Gulf countries."

"During the first half of the year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, part of the Energy Department, said total crude oil imports increased 7 percent year-on-year," reports Daniel J. Graeber for United Press International (UPI) on the data posted Oct. 21. "The increase marks a first since 2010, when imports started to decline in response to rising domestic output."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly 

One reason political leaders have made energy independence a priority to be less reliant on unstable Mideast oil sources, as well as other OPEC nations that can control prices, as Clinton correctly claimed on Oct. 9. But the news is even worse in that regard, as the largest increase came from those sources.

"[I]mports from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased by 504,000 barrels per day, making up the bulk of the new oil entering the U.S. economy," adds Graeber.

The reason for the increased imports is that a narrowing in the "price differences between U.S. crudes and international benchmarks provided an incentive for increased imports by refiners in areas where imported crudes now had a delivered cost advantage relative to similar domestic crudes," according to the EIA.

In addition, domestic production declined "by about 500,000 barrels per day on average between the first half of last year and the first half of this year," adds Graeber. "Under pressure from lower crude oil prices and weaker demand, U.S. crude oil production is expected to decline through the end of the decade."

In other words, Saudi Arabia's decision to let oil prices slide (at a November 2014 OPEC meeting) in order to maintain market share is working.

PolitiFact 

The Pulitzer Prize-winning website was kinder toward Clinton than Forbes' Wald. While rating Clinton's claim as 'false', it included an EIA reference that showed that when considering all energy sources, Clinton's claim might be achieved, but not during her term should she be elected.

"Projections in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015), released April 14, [2015] show the potential to eliminate net U.S. energy imports sometime between 2020 and 2030," according to an EIA report dated April 15, 2015.

Energy independence will be achieved in one form of energy in 2017

Had Clinton just referred to natural gas, her claim would have been correct. Furthermore, thanks to Liquefied Natural Gas, exports will increase greatly.

"Sometime in 2017, for the first time in 60 years, the U.S. will likely sell more natural gas to the world than it buys," reports Naureen Malik for Bloomberg Businessweek. "Next year, capacity to export liquefied natural gas from the lower 48 states, chilled to –260F so it can be shipped by tanker, will more than double, to 3.2 billion cubic feet per day."

Hat tip to Alan Drake.