Cambridge Studying its Vulnerability to Climate Change

One of the most detailed and in-depth urban climate change vulnerability assessments is being conducted by the city of Cambridge, MA. The first report from the assessment—CCVA Report - Part 1—addresses the physical and social risks to Cambridge from increasing temperatures and precipitation, looking out toward 2030 and 2070.

The assessment uses locally downscaled climate change projections to create plausible scenarios of how climate may change over the coming decades. The projections were used to map urban heat islands, project the number of days over 90 and 100 degrees, and model both riverine and piped infrastructure flooding. With the scenarios, the city assessed about 1,000 physical assets and social factors. The vulnerability assessment will be the technical foundation for the Climate Change Preparedness and Resilience Plan that will start up in January 2016 and will also inform the citywide comprehensive plan that is starting up at the same time. The Part 1 report consists of a summary report and 3 technical reports. A second report will follow in February 2016 about the risks from sea level rise and storm surges.

Detailed modeling, based on the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) and SWAN models has been completed in partnership with the Massachusetts Department of Transportation to develop the Boston Harbor Flood Risk Model. This is a probabilistic model that computes risks associated with storm surges under future climate change scenarios, based on about 6,000 storms of the past and simulated for the future. Results of the modeling are available on the city website.