The Census Bureau's questionable methodology for estimating municipal population growth has resulted in counter-intuitive and often outrageous numbers, warns Aaron M. Renn.
There have been serious problems with the Census Bureau's estimates in the past, and the most recent numbers continue to give cause for concern:
"... Indeed, for the recently released 2012 vintage municipal estimates, they went back to using a real estimating methodology instead of the simple allocation approach from 2011. However, as with the 2000s, these are showing strong municipal population growth in places where that would represent a major discontinuity with the actual decennial Census results from the 2000-2010, and from economic conditions.
How is it that cities, after a disappointing 2000s where some places actually underperformed versus the 1990s, in an economy that has been recessionary to sluggish the entire post-2010 person and in which the housing market that triggered the crash has also yet to recover, that these growth rates are possible? It’s certainly eyebrow-raising at a minimum."
Read the full story: Is the Census Bureau on Track for Another Estimating Fiasco?
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