We're in Deepwater

What began on April 20^th as a
tragic industrial accident that claimed 11 lives is turning into an unprecedented ecological disaster.

People are already calling the massive eruption of oil in the Gulf of Mexico "America's
Chernobyl," and, like that disaster, the Gulf oil mess will surely have significant implications
for national energy policies: deep-sea oil drilling will now be seen to be on par with
nuclear energy in terms of risk. It is difficult to imagine anyone again
chanting "drill, baby drill".

News coverage and preparations
have focused on the Gulf states and related environmental and economic impacts
as the oil begins to take its toll on wildlife and the industries dependent on
Gulf ecosystems, including fishing and tourism.

There is however a much more horrific
scenario emerging that is only getting limited treatment in the media: that the
Deepwater Horizon rig was drilling at the very edge of our technological
capabilities and that the conditions on the ocean floor are so extreme, complex
and dangerous that there may, in fact, be no way to control or stop the oil
from gushing.

A report leaked to the media from the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warns that if the pipe currently restricting flow breaks, the surge could increase
to 50,000 barrels a day. Worse still, if the well head itself collapses under
the pressure, the eruption would be completely uncontrolled – essentially an
underwater volcano of oil. James Moore at the Huffington Post
believes that the disaster may become a global one:

"[T]here is no way to know when and even if
the well will ever be capped. In fact, if there is no plug placed in the hole,
it is not inconceivable that no part of the planet's oceans will escape harm."

Paul Noel of the New Energy Congress also believes that the sheer size of the deposit into which Deepwater Horizon
was drilling suggests that, if unchecked, the leak could poison all of the
world's oceans: 

"[T]he BP people are not talking, but this
well is into a deposit that easily could top 500,000 barrels production per day
for 10 or 15 years...The deposit is very big. It contains so much hydrocarbon
that you simply cannot imagine it. In published reports, BP estimated a blow
out could reach near 200,000 Barrels per day (165,000) They may have estimated
a flow rate on a 5 foot pipe. The deposit is well able to surpass this The
deposit is so large that while I have never heard exact numbers it was described
to me to be either the largest or the second largest oil deposit ever
found [covering] an area off shore something like 25,000 square miles. Natural
Gas and Oil is leaking out of the deposit as far inland as Central Alabama and
way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana almost as far as Texas. This
is a really massive deposit."

Hopefully, the 100 ton "dome" that is to be
lowered over the leak will work and the spill will be successfully controlled. If not, and if the
surge continues for months and years, with Gulf currents carrying the oil into
the Atlantic and beyond, we will be facing an environmental catastrophe beyond our imaginations – perhaps even the death of the world's oceans.

Such scenarios may be extreme. We must hope
so.

Beyond hope, however, there must be the recognition that the Deepwater Horizon disaster is just the
most recent and alarming warning that our present energy regime is itself a
disaster and must come to an end. Continuing to plan for a built environment
dependent on cheap fossil fuels can no longer be considered tenable. We must
move much more aggressively on reducing energy inputs and on facilitating a
transition to a society based not on the exploitation of hydrocarbons but on
renewable sources of energy. This means that we must stop assuming that "people
will always drive," or that goods and people will always be able to easily jet
to and from metropolitan areas.

In short, I believe that the disaster in the Gulf lends
just about the most powerful moral imperative imaginable to efforts to promote
Smart Growth, densification, mass transit, high-speed rail, transportation electrification, re-localization and alternative
energy.

And, as a warning, it may be the last one we get.