Can NYC Produce Half a Million Housing Units in a Decade?

The Manhattan Institute’s Eric Kober examines New York City’s City of Yes for Housing Opportunity (COH) zoning reform proposal, which is being described as a ‘moonshot’ effort to significantly boost the city’s housing supply in a decade.

A half-million new housing units over a decade translates into 50,000 units each year, a level not reached since the early 1960s—and then, for only a few years.

Attempting to answer the question of what policies can help the city achieve its ambitious goal, Kober notes that enacting the CHO is just one piece of a larger puzzle, pointing out that zoning regulations in 1961 were far more attuned to the potential for rapid population growth and a surge in housing demand. Kober recommends “far more permissive” zoning that accommodates changing demand mirroring the 1961 policies, as well as “rational and consistent” taxation of residential properties, and rent control policies that are sensitive to their impacts on new construction.

However, “Many of these reforms represent daunting political hurdles, and change won’t happen quickly. An optimistic scenario is that NYC will see incremental reforms, and housing construction will creep up.” While the mayor’s goal of 500,000 new housing units may be out of reach, it provides an aspirational target that could move the needle on the city’s housing crisis.