Report: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reductions Not Hitting Paris Agreement Goal

An annual report from Rhodium Group that analyzes trends in greenhouse gas emissions in the United States finds that “the US is on track to reduce emissions 24% to 35% below 2005 levels by 2030, absent any additional policy action,” far below the Paris Agreement goal of reducing GHG emissions by 50 to 52 percent. The report notes that “These estimates represent a rosier outlook for emissions reductions compared to Taking Stock 2021 (which estimated a 17-30% reduction by 2030 under current policy), but this change is largely attributable to slower macroeconomic growth projections and higher fossil fuel prices—not large policy changes.”

According to the report, “Industry becomes the largest-emitting sector absent meaningful policies to curtail emissions growth, with emissions remaining relatively flat depending on the scenario,” while the power sector continues to reduce emissions as more Americans turn to renewable energy and the transportation sector cuts some emissions thanks to electric vehicle adoption. “There has been some policy movement in the past year, although not close to the level of action required to meet the US’s 2030 climate target, and the recent Supreme Court ruling in West Virginia v. EPA has called EPA’s regulatory pathways into question.”