A Traffic Forecasting Model for Pedestrians

A new methodology can help cities assess the impact of new developments on walkers.

2 minute read

May 6, 2021, 6:00 AM PDT

By Diana Ionescu @aworkoffiction


Chicago Six-Way

Steven Vance / Flickr

While planners frequently use forecasting models to predict the impact of new developments on traffic, congestion, and road quality, no such model existed for assessing the effects of development on non-drivers. Now, reports Kea Wilson for Streetsblog, "Massachusetts Institute of Technology Researcher Andres Sevstuk has created a sophisticated new methodology for estimating changes in the volume of walkers on city streets at different times throughout the day in response to changes in the built environment, in much the same way that planners estimate how vehicle traffic will change after they break ground on a building or roadway redesign."

Similar traffic impact assessments (TIAs) are frequently used to evaluate the impact of projects. According to researcher Andres Sevstuk, "if the TIA forecast that a project would put more traffic onto city streets than the current road design can tolerate, then the developer typically has to pay to address that — maybe by building extra parking, or paying to widen a road, or paying to adjust traffic signal timing." Sevstuk argues that adding more infrastructure for counting pedestrians could have a "dramatic effect" on our understanding of how land use affects walking in cities.

Sevstuk's model, writes Wilson, "would be re-calibrated by each community using at least some local walking data, but even without those inputs, it can predict pedestrian volumes with roughly 70 to 80 percent accuracy." This information can help cities decide where to build amenities like parks or parking lots and serve as "a critical tool to identify where to prioritize pedestrian improvements that planners haven’t even considered yet." Further, "[o]verlaying projections with actual pedestrian crash data and data on corridors that have been historically disinvested could be even more helpful as leaders work towards ending traffic violence and making cities more equitable."

Monday, April 26, 2021 in Streetsblog USA

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Close-up of "Apartment for rent" sign in red text on black background in front of blurred building

Trump Administration Could Effectively End Housing Voucher Program

Federal officials are eyeing major cuts to the Section 8 program that helps millions of low-income households pay rent.

April 21, 2025 - Housing Wire

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

April 23, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Ken Jennings stands in front of Snohomish County Community Transit bus.

Ken Jennings Launches Transit Web Series

The Jeopardy champ wants you to ride public transit.

April 20, 2025 - Streetsblog USA

Green painted bike lane with striped buffer between car lane and curb parking lane.

Why Bike Lanes Are Good: An Explainer for the US Transportation Secretary

Sean Duffy says there’s no evidence that bike lanes have benefits. Streetsblog — and federal agencies’ own data — beg to differ.

1 hour ago - Streetsblog USA

Yellow electric school bus with preteen students exiting.

California Invests Additional $5M in Electric School Buses

The state wants to electrify all of its school bus fleets by 2035.

April 25 - Associated Press

City Hall building in Austin, Texas.

Austin Launches $2M Homelessness Prevention Fund

A new grant program from the city’s Homeless Strategy Office will fund rental assistance and supportive services.

April 25 - Spectrum Local News