Counting the Indicators of a Deflating California Real Estate Bubble

California's real estate market has been on fire, outperforming the rest of the nation and the economy in general. But it won't last much longer, writes real estate and affordable housing adviser Michael P. Russell:

The retail sector is experiencing the following:

1. Core retail sales advanced 4.3% in the past year.
2. An increase in e-commerce.
3. Declining consumer income
4. Consolidation of various categories (i.e. sporting goods, department stores)
5. Tenant location decisions are often based upon rental rate

In the housing sector: 

In January, U. S. home prices climbed at more than double the rate of incomes, a trend that could ultimately create affordability challenges for buyers and extend the time that homes stay on the market.  The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20 city home price index rose 5.7% from a year earlier.  In Los Angeles and Orange counties, home prices jumped 6.9% from a year earlier.

Nationally, monthly rent growth for apartment REITs have slowed to 4.1% year over year in March from 4.2% in February.  Markets that are showing signs of deceleration include Boston, Dallas, Orlando, San Diego and Silver Spring, Maryland.  At the same time, MPF Research, a national apartment research firm reports that 55.1% of renters chose to renew their lease, which is the highest renewal rate in ten years.  In 111 markets, apartment rents reached a new peak in February, climbing an average of $7 to $1,175.

Given these factors, homebuilders and apartment developers have cut multifamily and single-family construction more than expected in March, declining 8.8% overall from February.  In February, the West entirely powered the sales numbers.

Ultimately, real estate market health depends on job and real income growth: "From 2005 to 2014, real income growth declined by 4.28 percent."  Citigroup, Inc. warns that the chances for a global recession "are already high and only going to go up," writes Russell—and that was before BREXIT.  

In the main article, Russell goes on to make predictions about how this will impact on public sector planning.