The Shaky Foundation Underlying CA's New Long-Range Regional Plans

Cox takes on the findings of a "sea-change" in household preferences away from suburban housing made by Nelson, Professor at the University of Utah, in a paper published by the Urban Land Institute and housing demand models developed for California's four
largest planning regions. As Cox notes Nelson's "demand estimates rely
strongly on data from three early 2000s stated preference surveys
conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)...which can mislead if people act differently
when they make choices in the real world."

Cox conducts his own analysis and comes to the opposite conclusion of Nelson with regards to housing supply and demand in the state. Using the
actual change in housing by type from the 2000 Census data to the
latest American Community Survey (ACS) 2006-2010 data, Cox finds that, "the demand data
indicates a strong continuing preference among Californians for detached
housing on conventional lots...If there is a sea change, it would appear to be in multi-family
housing. In contrast with the 62% share for multi-family dwellings
modeled by Nelson, the actual demand indicated in the census tract data
was two-thirds less, at 19% (Figure 3), well below the supply of 43
percent in 2000. This suggests a tanking of demand for multi-family housing, even as builders, in California and elsewhere, put more product on the market."

If accurate, Cox's models would upend the basis for much of the state's much lauded long-range regional planning.