The Shaky Foundation Underlying CA's New Long-Range Regional Plans

Wendell Cox rebuts the work of Arthur C. Nelson, who has projected CA as over-supplied with detached housing and in demand of small lot and multi-unit housing. Nelson's work has been the basis of long-range regional planning throughout the state.

2 minute read

November 14, 2012, 1:00 PM PST

By Jonathan Nettler @nettsj


Cox takes on the findings of a "sea-change" in household preferences away from suburban housing made by Nelson, Professor at the University of Utah, in a paper published by the Urban Land Institute and housing demand models developed for California's four
largest planning regions. As Cox notes Nelson's "demand estimates rely
strongly on data from three early 2000s stated preference surveys
conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)...which can mislead if people act differently
when they make choices in the real world."

Cox conducts his own analysis and comes to the opposite conclusion of Nelson with regards to housing supply and demand in the state. Using the
actual change in housing by type from the 2000 Census data to the
latest American Community Survey (ACS) 2006-2010 data, Cox finds that, "the demand data
indicates a strong continuing preference among Californians for detached
housing on conventional lots...If there is a sea change, it would appear to be in multi-family
housing. In contrast with the 62% share for multi-family dwellings
modeled by Nelson, the actual demand indicated in the census tract data
was two-thirds less, at 19% (Figure 3), well below the supply of 43
percent in 2000. This suggests a tanking of demand for multi-family housing, even as builders, in California and elsewhere, put more product on the market."

If accurate, Cox's models would upend the basis for much of the state's much lauded long-range regional planning

 

 

Tuesday, November 13, 2012 in New Geography

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Use Code 25for25 at checkout for 25% off an annual plan!

Redlining map of Oakland and Berkeley.

Rethinking Redlining

For decades we have blamed 100-year-old maps for the patterns of spatial racial inequity that persist in American cities today. An esteemed researcher says: we’ve got it all wrong.

May 15, 2025 - Alan Mallach

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

May 14, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Front of Walmart store with sign.

Walmart Announces Nationwide EV Charging Network

The company plans to install electric car chargers at most of its stores by 2030.

May 7, 2025 - Inc.

Aerial view of Albuquerque, New Mexico at sunset.

New State Study Suggests Homelessness Far Undercounted in New Mexico

An analysis of hospital visit records provided a more accurate count than the annual point-in-time count used by most agencies.

May 16 - Source NM

Close-up on white bike helmet lying on pavement with blurred red bike on its side in background abd black car visible behind it.

Michigan Bills Would Stiffen Penalties for Deadly Crashes

Proposed state legislation would close a ‘legal gap’ that lets drivers who kill get away with few repercussions.

May 16 - Wood TV 8

Muni bus on red painted bus-only lane in downtown San Francisco, California.

Report: Bus Ridership Back to 86 Percent of Pre-Covid Levels

Transit ridership around the country was up by 85 percent in all modes in 2024.

May 16 - Mass Transit