Wendell Cox rebuts the work of Arthur C. Nelson, who has projected CA as over-supplied with detached housing and in demand of small lot and multi-unit housing. Nelson's work has been the basis of long-range regional planning throughout the state.
Cox takes on the findings of a "sea-change" in household preferences away from suburban housing made by Nelson, Professor at the University of Utah, in a paper published by the Urban Land Institute and housing demand models developed for California's four
largest planning regions. As Cox notes Nelson's "demand estimates rely
strongly on data from three early 2000s stated preference surveys
conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)...which can mislead if people act differently
when they make choices in the real world."
Cox conducts his own analysis and comes to the opposite conclusion of Nelson with regards to housing supply and demand in the state. Using the
actual change in housing by type from the 2000 Census data to the
latest American Community Survey (ACS) 2006-2010 data, Cox finds that, "the demand data
indicates a strong continuing preference among Californians for detached
housing on conventional lots...If there is a sea change, it would appear to be in multi-family
housing. In contrast with the 62% share for multi-family dwellings
modeled by Nelson, the actual demand indicated in the census tract data
was two-thirds less, at 19% (Figure 3), well below the supply of 43
percent in 2000. This suggests a tanking of demand for multi-family housing, even as builders, in California and elsewhere, put more product on the market."
If accurate, Cox's models would upend the basis for much of the state's much lauded long-range regional planning.
FULL STORY: A Housing Preference Sea Change? Not in California
Planners Driving Californians Out Of State
In this opinion piece, transportation consultant Wendell Cox explains why residents are fleeing CA in droves. By not providing single family homes Cox feels most want, residents must find their quarter-acre lots elsewhere. He blames regional plans.
San Diego High-Speed Rail Plan Counts on Future Density
Despite slowing population growth statewide, officials believe the region will "grow into" the new rail system if cities promote dense development around transit stations.
Climate Crisis, Housing Crisis on a Collision Course
Sprawl might relieve the housing crisis, but it would also exacerbate the climate crisis. Tough choices will be necessary in regions like San Diego, where the question of where to accommodate growth is very much in question.
Depopulation Patterns Get Weird
A recent ranking of “declining” cities heavily features some of the most expensive cities in the country — including New York City and a half-dozen in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Pennsylvania Mall Conversion Bill Passes House
If passed, the bill would promote the adaptive reuse of defunct commercial buildings.
California Exodus: Population Drops Below 39 Million
Never mind the 40 million that demographers predicted the Golden State would reach by 2018. The state's population dipped below 39 million to 38.965 million last July, according to Census data released in March, the lowest since 2015.
Google Maps Introduces New Transit, EV Features
It will now be easier to find electric car charging stations and transit options.
Ohio Lawmakers Propose Incentivizing Housing Production
A proposed bill would take a carrot approach to stimulating housing production through a grant program that would reward cities that implement pro-housing policies.
Chicago Awarded $2M Reconnecting Communities Grant
Community advocates say the city’s plan may not do enough to reverse the negative impacts of a major expressway.
City of Costa Mesa
Licking County
Barrett Planning Group LLC
HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research
Mpact Transit + Community
HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research
City of Universal City TX
ULI Northwest Arkansas
Town of Zionsville
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