Following Up on Dire Predictions About Water in the West

25 years after the publication of Cadillac Desert, scientists have scrutinized the predictions of the hallmark history of water in the Western U.S. and find that its dire warnings are not far off.

1 minute read

May 12, 2011, 12:00 PM PDT

By Nate Berg


Published in 1986, author Marc Reisner's book was the most comprehensive look at water issues in the West. But few if any studies had ever been done to see how its predictions turned out, which inspired John Sabo, an Arizona State University professor, to take a look.

"[W]hile Sabo thinks the term apocalypse is overstated, he believes Reisner accurately depicted "region-wide hydrologic dysfunction" in the West. "In many ways," says Sabo, "Reisner was visionary." And that was before widespread knowledge about climate change reshuffled the cards.

The late journalist's insights and analysis extend to the mid-19th century, when "Go West, young man" echoed through the urbanizing East. Back then, Los Angeles had fewer than 2,000 people, and Denver barely existed. But the now-iconic call to action was followed by an equally transformative, if lesser-known maxim, "Rain follows the plow," a cultish belief inspired by a mere coincidence. For in a key period of those heady days of relentless western expansion, the so-called Great American Desert was soaked by uncharacteristic rainfall, prompting many to attribute the increased moisture to the building of towns, creation of mines and plowing of land.

Friday, May 6, 2011 in Miller-McCune

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Aerial view of town of Wailuku in Maui, Hawaii with mountains in background against cloudy sunset sky.

Maui's Vacation Rental Debate Turns Ugly

Verbal attacks, misinformation campaigns and fistfights plague a high-stakes debate to convert thousands of vacation rentals into long-term housing.

July 1, 2025 - Honolulu Civil Beat

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

July 2, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

White and purple sign for Slow Street in San Francisco, California with people crossing crosswalk.

San Francisco Suspends Traffic Calming Amidst Record Deaths

Citing “a challenging fiscal landscape,” the city will cease the program on the heels of 42 traffic deaths, including 24 pedestrians.

July 1, 2025 - KQED

Google street view of red brick multi-story power plant building in Pittsburgh, PA.

Defunct Pittsburgh Power Plant to Become Residential Tower

A decommissioned steam heat plant will be redeveloped into almost 100 affordable housing units.

July 4 - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Cyclist on protected bike lane in middle of street in Washington D.C. with Washington Monument obelisk visible in background.

Trump Prompts Restructuring of Transportation Research Board in “Unprecedented Overreach”

The TRB has eliminated more than half of its committees including those focused on climate, equity, and cities.

July 4 - Streetsblog USA

Blue and silver Amtrak train at small station.

Amtrak Rolls Out New Orleans to Alabama “Mardi Gras” Train

The new service will operate morning and evening departures between Mobile and New Orleans.

July 3 - New Orleans City Business