Electric Cars Must Wait (For Lower Battery Costs)

A new study from the Boston Consulting Group concludes that gasoline powered-vehicles will predominate till at least 2020; doubtful of their ability to attract customers, contradicting brighter industry forecasts predominantly due to battery costs.

1 minute read

January 13, 2010, 9:00 AM PST

By Irvin Dawid


Many all-electric or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will be coming into the market soon, but this new study doubts their ability to capture much of the market despite industry claims to the contrary.

"The Boston Consulting Group study forecasts that most gasoline-powered cars will remain most popular for many years. It forecasts that they will represent 62 percent of sales in the United States and 58 percent of sales worldwide in 2020.

The main factor, the study says, is price. It predicts that the cost of a battery pack about the size of the Volt's will fall by $10,000, or 64 percent, from 2009 to 2020. But even then it would take about 15 years for the cost of owning an electric vehicle to equal that of a gas-powered car.

He said a three-year time frame would require significant government incentives or a drastic change in one or more factors, like oil prices of about $375 a barrel, more than quadruple today's price.

Thanks to Kenyon Karl

Thursday, January 7, 2010 in The New York Times - Energy & Environment

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Cover CM Credits, Earn Certificates, Push Your Career Forward

Logo for Planetizen Federal Action Tracker with black and white image of U.S. Capitol with water ripple overlay.

Planetizen Federal Action Tracker

A weekly monitor of how Trump’s orders and actions are impacting planners and planning in America.

June 11, 2025 - Diana Ionescu

Metrorail train pulling into newly opened subterranean station in Washington, D.C. with crowd on platform taking photos.

Congressman Proposes Bill to Rename DC Metro “Trump Train”

The Make Autorail Great Again Act would withhold federal funding to the system until the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA), rebrands as the Washington Metropolitan Authority for Greater Access (WMAGA).

June 2, 2025 - The Hill

Large crowd on street in San Francisco, California during Oktoberfest festival.

The Simple Legislative Tool Transforming Vacant Downtowns

In California, Michigan and Georgia, an easy win is bringing dollars — and delight — back to city centers.

June 2, 2025 - Robbie Silver

Color-coded map of labor & delivery departments and losses in United States.

The States Losing Rural Delivery Rooms at an Alarming Pace

In some states, as few as 9% of rural hospitals still deliver babies. As a result, rising pre-term births, no adequate pre-term care and "harrowing" close calls are a growing reality.

7 hours ago - Maine Morning Star

Street scene in Kathmandu, Nepal with yellow minibuses and other traffic.

The Small South Asian Republic Going all in on EVs

Thanks to one simple policy change less than five years ago, 65% of new cars in this Himalayan country are now electric.

June 15 - Fast Company

Bike lane in Washington D.C. protected by low concrete barriers.

DC Backpedals on Bike Lane Protection, Swaps Barriers for Paint

Citing aesthetic concerns, the city is removing the concrete barriers and flexposts that once separated Arizona Avenue cyclists from motor vehicles.

June 15 - The Washington Post