The Rise of the Megapolitans

"Many of us sense that a large-scale metropolitan convergence is under way because we see metro areas that were once distinct places now merging into enormous urban complexes. Dallas and Fort Worth converged in the 1960s, as Washington and Baltimore did two decades later.Today, regions with multiple cities, like Phoenix and Tucson, Tampa and Orlando, and San Antonio and Austin, are exhibiting the same pattern, only on a more massive scale.

We have developed the megapolitan concept in part to depict where the next 100 million Americans will live. The analysis found 20 emerging megapolitan areas that are based on the U.S. Census Bureau's definition of a combined statistical area, or CSA. The 15 most populous metros are in megapolitan areas, as are 36 of the nation's 50 top metropolitan areas.

"...By mid-century the center of U.S. population will lie near the geographic midpoint of the nation. The U.S. population will be evenly divided between East and West. One twist not anticipated by Francis Walker and other 19th-century demographers is how far south the center of population will drift by the middle of the 21st century. If the more northern balanced settlement pattern that began in 1800 held steady to 2040, the center of U.S. population could very well have wound up in Kansas, or near the geographic center of the Lower 48 states."

...What will the nation look like with 400 million people? Its metropolitan space will be transformed by denser development, but most places beyond the megas will look the same as they do today. The image of a nation paved over from coast to coast is false. If anything, parts of the Great Plains and northern Rockies could be even less populated than they are now."

[Editor's note: The full text of this article in Planning magazine is available only to APA members. However, a similarly-titled report "Beyond Megalopolis: Exploring America's New "Megapolitan" Geography" is available on the Metropolitan Institute's website (link below).]