Study: New Orleans sea level rise is at 'point of no return'

Research shows that the city could be surrounded by water by the end of this century.

2 minute read

May 11, 2026, 7:00 AM PDT

By Diana Ionescu @aworkoffiction


Carsparked on flooded street in New Orleans with downtown high-rises visible in background.

Flooding in New Orleans, Louisiana. | Chris Nicotera / Shutterstock

A new study published in the Nature Sustainability journal highlights the urgency of New Orleans' climate crisis, stating that the city has reached a "point of no return" in terms of future flood risks, reports Oliver Milman in The Guardian.

"Ongoing sea-level rise and the rampant erosion of wetlands in southern Louisiana will swallow up the New Orleans area within a few generations, with the new paper estimating the city 'may well be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century'." The city faces threats from sea level rise, stronger hurricanes, and the subsidence of the coastline. The southern portion of Louisiana could experience a 3 meter to 7 meter rise in sea level, which would cause the shoreline to migrate as much as 62 miles inland — which would surround the cities of New Orleans and Baton Rouge. 

According to the study, this makes southern Louisiana the "most physically vulnerable coastal zone in the world" and calls for "immediate action" to relocate New Orleans' 360,000 residents.

The city's levees, upgraded after Hurricane Katrina, are already not sufficient to save the city from the imminent threat. Jesse Keenan, an expert in climate adaptation at Tulane University and one of the study's co-authors, says "City, state and federal leaders should begin work to help support people moving away from the New Orleans region in a coordinated way, starting with the most vulnerable communities, such as those in Plaquemines parish who live outside the levee system." The below-sea-level city, Keenan says, is in a "terminal condition" and requires "palliative care." 

According to the article, "Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost 2,000 sq miles of land to coastal erosion, equivalent to the size of Delaware, with a further 3,000 sq miles set to vanish over the next 50 years. The rate of land loss is so rapid that a football pitch-sized area is wiped out every 100 minutes."

Monday, May 4, 2026 in The Guardian

Young Professional

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban and Environmental Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban and Environmental Planner

Get top-rated, practical training for planners

Overlapping highways

The state-sanctioned urbicide of Austin

People don’t kill cities. Freeways do.

September 8, 2026 - Benjamin Schneider

The Hoover Dam blocking the Colorado River. The river's water level is noticeably low. The cliffs surrounding the blue water are brown and jagged.

US to reduce Colorado River water deliveries to Mexico

A new Colorado Treaty amendment reduces Mexico’s Colorado River water allocation by 250,000 acre feet.

September 11, 2026 - The Arizona Republic

Skyscrapers in Jersey City.

New Jersey’s second-largest city bans standalone data centers

Jersey City will continue to allow co-location facilities, such as those meant for research institutions that store their own data.

September 4, 2026 - The Cool Down

A New Jersey train approaches people waiting at the station.

Amtrak not solely to blame for New Jersey commuter rail's unreliability, report finds

A new study from the Garden State Initiative found that NJ Transit’s budget grew 20% across a 4 year period, but reliability declined significantly over the same period.

September 15 - Mass Transit

A tall, gray power plant billows smoke into a blue sky.

EPA erases limits on planet-warming pollution from power plants

Under Monday’s plan, power plants would still have some limits on how much mercury, arsenic and other contaminants they can emit.

September 15 - New York Times

A white RAPID bus. The lower half is light blue, and says RAPID in purple text. The bus is half visible, appearing from the left side of the image.

Phoenix announces new on-demand transit service, more frequent RAPID buses

Both new services will launch in October, and are part of Phoenix's Project Effective Access Solutions for Easing Congestion.

September 15 - KJZZ

FREE Course: Walkable City 1: Why Walkability?

After describing his path towards focusing on walkability as the essence of good planning, Jeff Speck marches through his five principal reasons for making more walkable places.

Reinventing Malls: Planning Alchemy—Turning Gray Fields Into Gold

The course focuses on the opportunities and imperatives that shape reinvention of mall sites.