Looking Back on 60 Years of Land Development in the Twin Cities

What will the Minneapolis and St. Paul region look like in 2050? Looking at past development can inform our future, and a new update from the Metropolitan Council does just that.

In total, the seven metro region counties comprise about 1.8 million acres of land (excluding lakes and rivers). In 1960, about 12 percent of that land was already developed. By 2020, about 34 percent had been developed. (“Developed” means areas with built uses, excluding farming, parks, and preserved open space.)

Many factors influenced how the region has changed since 1960. But two critical ones have been the construction of the interstate highway system and the Metropolitan Council’s influence over development through staging of regional wastewater service.

Interstates allow people to move further from job centers

In 1960, 52 percent of the seven-county metro population lived in Minneapolis and Saint Paul, the region’s major employment centers. By 1980, only 32 percent of the population lived in the two central cities. The construction of I-94, I-35, and I-494/694 approximately tripled the land supply within a 30-minute drive of the region’s core, explained Todd Graham, Met Council principal researcher.

Not only did the modern highway network allow more people to live in suburbs and exurbs, but employment centers also started to shift into the suburbs. In 1962, 3M Company opened its first building in Maplewood. New indoor shopping malls (the “Dales”) sprang up in Edina, Minnetonka, Roseville, and Brooklyn Center, creating areas for more commercial and industrial growth.

“I-494 through Bloomington and Richfield has become one of the largest employment centers in the region,” Graham said. “This suburbanization of jobs allowed more people to live in more places.”

Sewer policies help reduce household sewer rates

In 1967, the Minnesota Legislature recognized two urgent needs: stop pollution to area lakes and rivers from failing local sewage treatment plants, and plan for the orderly and economical development of the growing metro region.

The legislature created the Met Council to plan for growth, a metro sewer board to operate a regional sewer system, and a transit commission to operate the bus system.  (In 1994, the legislature merged all three agencies.)

Over time, the concept of a metropolitan urban service area, or MUSA, emerged to define where regional wastewater collection and treatment would be provided. Key considerations were:

• Ensuring enough land supply to accommodate forecasted growth on a 20- to 30-year planning horizon
• Capacity of the local and regional sewer systems
• New development served by sewer would be contiguous with existing sewered development

MUSA policies and implementation have evolved in response to changing development demands, according to Lisa Barajas, Met Council community development director. But a key goal has always been to ensure that urban services support planned development cost-efficiently. As a result, household sewer costs in our region are about 35% lower than the national average for peer systems.

National trends impact growth

Economic cycles have impacted regional growth. In the 1990s, when the national economy boomed, the region developed more than 86,000 acres of land – greater than in any decade earlier or since.

Demographics have also influenced development. Starting in the 1960s, the huge baby boom generation started reaching adulthood and buying homes, which boosted land consumption.

More choices, balanced growth reduces land consumption

Since 2010, the demographic makeup of people looking for homes has diversified; there are more senior households, more 1- and 2-person households, and a growing population of color. This greater diversity is accompanied by more varied housing preferences – not just the single-family house in the suburbs.

In the 2010s, apartment building construction reached record levels. Single-family detached homebuilding fell to 51,000 houses per decade – half the homebuilding production experienced in the peak 1990s, and the lowest pace since World War II. On average, single-family detached houses consume 12 times more land than the same number of apartments or condos. As a result, land consumption in the 2010s was half that of the 1990s.

The Met Council has also supported less land consumption by providing Livable Communities grants to cities. The grants help fund affordable housing and development along transitways, giving people the choice to live without a car. A 2023 Metro Transit report found that between 2009 and 2022, 43% of the region’s multifamily development by permit value were permitted along high frequency transit, representing 55,200 housing units.

Forecasting regional and local growth to 2050

The Met Council is also responsible for developing forecasts of when, where, and how much growth the seven-county region and local jurisdictions can expect over a 30-year horizon. Long-range forecasts provide a shared foundation for coordinated comprehensive planning.

After receiving public comments on the latest forecasts for the draft regional development guide, Imagine 2050, the Met Council has finalized the forecasts for local population growth, as these projections serve as the basis for local comprehensive planning.  Imagine 2025, including the forecasts, are scheduled for adoption on Feb. 12.

The Met Council’s Generalized Land Use Inventory is a tool we use to track development trends and how the region is doing against our land use objectives and assist in forecasting. We use aerial photography, assessors’ information, building permits, and internet searches to determine land uses and use changes. The next inventory is scheduled to be completed in 2026.