On the Eve of the Pandemic: U.S. Migration at an All-Time Low

The U.S. Census Bureau released a fresh batch of Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement data, bringing the data current to the pandemic's doorstep. William H. Frey provides insight and analysis from the data dump, noting that the continuing trend of declining migration is likely to change in 2020—but there are no Census data to show those changes yet.  

Still, newly released pre-pandemic census statistics show a continuation of the decades-long migration decline, bringing the percentage of Americans who changed residence to a post-World War II low of 9.3%. This one-year rate—between March 2019 and March 2020—occurred on the heels of a year when the nation’s total population growth fell to a 100-year low, with a continued downturn in the nation’s foreign-born population gains. Thus, even before the pandemic, the nation was in the throes of stagnating demographic dynamics.

The article provides a history of migration in the United States since the mid-20 century, bringing that history up to date with the Millennial Generation. According to Frey, the nation's largest and most diverse generation ever is stuck in place, relative to previous generations.

Frey concludes the article by providing a bit of insight about what data is available to capture the migration trend of Americans during the pandemic, with the caveat that most information needed to understand pandemic migration is still unknow.