More than Meets the Eye With Seattle Development Trends

Ethan Phelps-Goodman takes a look back at the development year that transpired in Seattle, finding that appearances don't tell the whole story. According to Phelps-Goodman, that is, all those construction cranes dotting the city skyline don't mean that 2015 was a pace-setting year for construction: "housing production is actually set to decline this year as compared to the year before."

More specifically:

"Extrapolating from numbers published by the City of Seattle for the first three quarters of 2015, housing production for this year will be about 6,800 units (although an end of the year surge is certainly possible). That’s about equal to 2013 levels, but off significantly from the 8,300 units produced in 2014."

Phelps-Goodman notes that the city's development environment suffers from a problem of perception. So while production of single-family homes, townhouses, and small apartments increased more than 20 percent, construction of midrise buildings dropped from 3,800 units to a projected 2,700 units this year. Phelps-Goodman also notes that the perception problem is also a question of location, with neighborhoods like Capitol Hill, First Hill, the U-District, and Columbia City adding lots of units, while South Lake Union, Northgate, Queen Anne, Ballard, Green Lake, and Roosevelt had a "paucity" of projects.

It's also worth noting that the city data cited by Phelps-Goodman produces a narrative that contradicts a story pushed in November, in which landlords lamented a "tsunami" of rental units coming online in the region over the past several years, slowing the growth of media rents.